Severe Thunderstorm Warning 273, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
233 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004

.DISCUSSION (TODAY/TONIGHT)...

UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO DELAY THE ONSET OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  18Z SPECIAL RAOB INDICATES A 100 MB MIXED
LAYER INHIBITION VALUE OF AROUND 150 J/KG.  WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL
FORCING EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...THE CAP SHOULD HOLD.

HOWEVER...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE HIGH
WET BULB ZERO AND -20 C HEIGHTS...HAIL MAY BE HARD TO COME BY UNTIL
THE UPPER LEVELS CAN COOL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.
ALSO...WITH THE STABLE LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 750 MB...DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED AS WELL.  THEREFORE...GENERAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...WITH A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS INTO THE SEVERE
CATEGORY BY 10 PM TONIGHT.  HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR TONIGHT...GIVEN
THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE.

CRAMER

DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TAP TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR
OUT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING IN WAVE OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AS TEMPS DROP
INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. OTHERWISE WILL SEE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

BY AROUND LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA...LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS AS ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. EXTENDED MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY
PINNING DOWN SURFACE FEATHERS...BUT SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE
AREA. COLD FRONT PASSAGE HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK ABOUT A DAY WITH THE
MAIN STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ON
FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE HANDLED PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES (20 PERCENT) FOR STORMS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY AND INCREASE
TO CHANCE (30-40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

AT LEAST FOR NOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS LOOK PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD
AS COOLER AIRMASS STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

TERRY
&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS.  LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE
OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE A FEW
AREAS...DROPPING FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOWN A FEW CATEGORIES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...ADVECTING DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
352 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-230100-
BARRY-BARTON-BENTON-BOURBON-CAMDEN-CEDAR-CHEROKEE-CHRISTIAN-CRAWFORD-
DADE-DALLAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-GREENE-HICKORY-HOWELL-JASPER-LACLEDE-
LAWRENCE-MARIES-MCDONALD-MILLER-MORGAN-NEWTON-OREGON-OZARK-PHELPS-
POLK-PULASKI-SHANNON-ST. CLAIR-STONE-TANEY-TEXAS-VERNON-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AVA...BOLIVAR...BRANSON...CAMDENTON...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...FORT SCOTT...HOUSTON...JOPLIN...LEBANON...
MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...NEVADA...OSAGE BEACH...OZARK...
PITTSBURG...ROLLA...SPRINGFIELD...STOCKTON AND WEST PLAINS.
352 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING...
  HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS.
  WIND GUST OF 65 MPH.
  HEAVY RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM BRANSON
  TO MARSHFIELD TO OSAGE BEACH THIS EVENING.

  POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 10PM FOR ALL AREAS OF
  EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS.

  DISCUSSION:

  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
  PLAINS AND APPROACH THE OZARKS TONIGHT.  IN RESPONSE...SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM.  NON SEVERE
  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND AREAS OF WESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 10PM TONIGHT.
  GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH STORMS
  TONIGHT WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND STRAIGHT LINE
  WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
  EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
  THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 10PM TONIGHT.

CRAMER