Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1230 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH BOTH IN TIME AND
AREA.  COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS REMAINED INTACT THOROUGH THE
MORNING AND IS MOVING INTO THE AREA ALREADY SOAKED FROM YESTERDAYS
HEAVY RAINFALL.  WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM...BUT AFTER
COORDINATING WITH EAX AND LSX...WILL LOOK INTO POSSIBILITY OF
EXTENDING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
BENTON...CAMDEN...DALLAS...HICKORY...LACLEDE...MARIES...MILLER...
MORGAN...PHELPS...PULASKI...VERNON AND ST. CLAIR.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...BOURBON.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-241800-
BARRY-BARTON-BENTON-BOURBON-CAMDEN-CEDAR-CHEROKEE-CHRISTIAN-CRAWFORD-
DADE-DALLAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-GREENE-HICKORY-HOWELL-JASPER-LACLEDE-
LAWRENCE-MARIES-MCDONALD-MILLER-MORGAN-NEWTON-OREGON-OZARK-PHELPS-
POLK-PULASKI-SHANNON-ST. CLAIR-STONE-TANEY-TEXAS-VERNON-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AVA...BOLIVAR...BRANSON...CAMDENTON...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...FORT SCOTT...HOUSTON...JOPLIN...LEBANON...
MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...NEVADA...OSAGE BEACH...OZARK...
PITTSBURG...ROLLA...SPRINGFIELD...STOCKTON AND WEST PLAINS.
600 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS. A LOW END RISK FOR TORNADOES EXISTS.

AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NON SEVERE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY.

STORM REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 3 PM OVER THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER WESTERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...IN COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM CASSVILLE TO VERSAILLES.

  DISCUSSION:

A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING
EARLY THIS MORNING...ONE OVER AN AREA ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR
FROM ROLLA TO MARSHFIELD...AND THE OTHER OVER TRUMAN LAKE. THIS
SECOND AREA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS
MORNING.

AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL DESTABILIZE THE AREA...AND ENOUGH HEATING IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK A WEAK CAP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
MORNINGS THUNDERSTORMS. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL MAKE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND THE
LOCATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
MISSOURI. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN
CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 3 PM. THE NEXT HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 1 PM...OR EARLIER AS NEEDED.