Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
155 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...
CHAOTIC FLOW INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WIND
PROFILERS. EARLIER CONVECTION OVER KANSAS HAD MOVED AS FAR EAST AS
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERED THE SHEAR ZONE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER WAVE. SATELLITE PICTURE INDICATED TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF MESO LOWS SOUTH OF MEMPHIS...AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THE ONE SOUTH OF MEMPHIS IS MOVING MUCH FASTER WHICH WILL
LIKELY INFLUENCE SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI LATER THIS EVENING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATED WINDS BECOMING EAST/NORTHEAST OVER
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AS OF 130 PM.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER WAVE OVER
THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND UPCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

BEST METHOD IN THE SHORT TERM IS CONCENTRATING ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. THIS SEEMS TO INDICATE
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF BOTH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTHEAST...AND AS THE MESO LOW OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI MOVES NORTHWARD. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA WITH ISOLATED TO
NO CHANCES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. BOTH MODELS DO
SHOW A GENERAL TREND OF THE UPPER WAVE OVER TEXAS MOVING
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FIELD/LIFT WILL LIKELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT. THIS WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER AND PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGE AS THE MAIN LIFT
MOVES EAST.

NEXT FOCUS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS A SURFACE
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST ETA BRINGS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN
COMPARISON...THE GFS HOLDS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER. THIS WILL LEAD TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE QPF FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER FORECAST DUE TO THE FLAT ZONAL FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED PUSH OF FRONTAL POSITION...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
EITHER WAY. HAVE KEPT 30% OF ONGOING CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
EVEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH I HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 00Z MEAN
GFS SOLUTION...DOES NOT GIVE CONFIDENT FORECAST PICTURE.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

JLT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AFT 14Z WEDNESDAY AT THE KJLN AND
KSGF TERMINALS AS THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT
PRODUCE AN AREA OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE MVFR VISIBILITIES
IN SHOWERS.  UPCOMING TWEBS WILL HAVE MENTION OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FROM KTBN TO KSTL.

JLT/SAW

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1215 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161100-
BARRY-BARTON-BENTON-BOURBON-CAMDEN-CEDAR-CHEROKEE-CHRISTIAN-CRAWFORD-
DADE-DALLAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-GREENE-HICKORY-HOWELL-JASPER-LACLEDE-
LAWRENCE-MARIES-MCDONALD-MILLER-MORGAN-NEWTON-OREGON-OZARK-PHELPS-
POLK-PULASKI-SHANNON-ST. CLAIR-STONE-TANEY-TEXAS-VERNON-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AVA...BOLIVAR...BRANSON...CAMDENTON...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...FORT SCOTT...HOUSTON...JOPLIN...LEBANON...
MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...NEVADA...OSAGE BEACH...OZARK...
PITTSBURG...ROLLA...SPRINGFIELD...STOCKTON AND WEST PLAINS.
1215 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES...
  SMALL HAIL...
  AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A VERSAILLES TO BUFFALO TO
  BRANSON LINE THROUGH TONIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  TWO DISTINCT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND
  SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER LOW LEVEL
  CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS
  AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEFORE 9 PM. IN
  ADDITION...TWO AREAS OF SMALL SCALE LOW PRESSURE AREAS OVER
  NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS TENNESSEE WILL INCREASE
  THE CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
  OVERNIGHT...AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD. WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND NO
  MAJOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INHIBIT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
  DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STORM THIS AFTERNOON MAY
  PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HAIL LARGER THAN PEAS...AND WIND GUSTS
  OF 40 MPH. THE MAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS TO BE LOCALLY
  HEAVY RAINFALL AS DEEP MOISTURE RESIDES AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVEMENT
  WILL BE SLOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
  FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS
  WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
  DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  BECAUSE OF THE ISOLATED AND BRIEF NATURE OF THE SEVERE
  THREAT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH
  TONIGHT.

JLT