Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
959 AM CST SAT MAR 20 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPERATURES...WITH
CHANCE FOR RAIN/TSTMS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS.

A SHARP COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH AS ADVERTISED. STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT HAVE BEEN MEAGER THIS FAR WEST...MAINLY DUE TO STRONG CAPPING.
STORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER CLOSER TO A 500MB SHORTWAVE...AND SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAPPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF MO. STILL SEEING AN
ENHANCED AREA OF CU AND ISOLATED STORMS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MO AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE VERY
NEAR TERM UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

A STIFF NORTH WIND WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE OCCURRING BEHIND
THE FRONT. THIS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING....WILL CAUSE A SHORT TERM WILDFIRE
DANGER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE SGF AREA...WITH DRY SFC CONDITIONS
(NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN RECENTLY) AND RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
DROPPING OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. HAVE MENTIONED THIS ALREADY IN THE
HWO.

ETA/GFS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE SHORT TERM. ARE WILL BE UNDER A NW
MIDLEVEL FLOW REGIME THROUGH MON NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUN WITH THE BEST COLD AIR PUSH
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION STILL FAIRLY
POTENT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND
MINUS 5 DEG C OVER MY NORTHEAST COUNTIES BY SUN EVENING. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A BIT OVER THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS
REGION THROUGH MON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE OZARKS TONIGHT DESPITE NORTH WINDS
CONTINUING TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AS THE
SFC HIGH DROPS INTO THE AREA...BUT A NW FLOW SHORTWAVE MAY BE ABLE
TO PRODUCE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO PUT SOMEWHAT OF A DAMPER ON RADIATIONAL
COOLING. STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING BY 12Z MON
MORNING.

WESTERN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT TUE AND ALLOW A SERIES
OF SUBTLE/WEAK SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIODS. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...BOTH THE ETA AND GFS BRING GULF
MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT EVEN BY MON NIGHT IS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT OVER EASTERN
KS/MO...BUT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW..SO AM
HOLDING OFF ON RAIN CHANCES ATTM. MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS LATE TUE THROUGH EARLY THU...AND HAVE RAISED POPS
SOMEWHAT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 45 KT 850MB SSW-SWLY JET...DEEPER
MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

GFS DEVELOPS A MEAN TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BY LATE THU AND
UPPER FLOW BACK TO THE SW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. MOISTURE ADVECTION
KICKS IN ONCE AGAIN AS STRONG LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE ADDED ONLY SLIGHT POPS FOR FRIDAY GIVEN THE
FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH SUBTLE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES.
OVERALL...PATTERN DEFINITELY BECOMING MORE SPRING LIKE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.

DSA

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL PASSAGE HAD MADE IT THROUGH THE SGF AND JLN TERMINALS BY
19Z.  EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 03Z.  GUSTY
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SURFACE HIGH.  ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

GAEDE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
102 PM CST SAT MAR 20 2004

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-211200-
BARRY-BARTON-BENTON-BOURBON-CAMDEN-CEDAR-CHEROKEE-CHRISTIAN-CRAWFORD-
DADE-DALLAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-GREENE-HICKORY-HOWELL-JASPER-LACLEDE-
LAWRENCE-MARIES-MCDONALD-MILLER-MORGAN-NEWTON-OREGON-OZARK-PHELPS-
POLK-PULASKI-SHANNON-ST. CLAIR-STONE-TANEY-TEXAS-VERNON-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AVA...BOLIVAR...BRANSON...CAMDENTON...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...FORT SCOTT...HOUSTON...JOPLIN...LEBANON...
MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...NEVADA...OSAGE BEACH...OZARK...
PITTSBURG...ROLLA...SPRINGFIELD...STOCKTON AND WEST PLAINS.
102 PM CST SAT MAR 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN AREAS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO
BUNKER. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE BE CAPABLE OF ONE INCH HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY 3
PM.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH MUCH DRYER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL POSE A SHORT TERM HEIGHTENED RISK OF WILDFIRES IF OUTDOOR
BURNING IS NOT PROPERLY CONTAINED. USE CAUTION IF YOU HAVE ONGOING
OUTDOOR BURNING PROJECTS...OR IF BURNING IS PLANNED. THE AREAS AT
GREATEST RISK WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE
HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE OR ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH WEST TO EAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY....AND THEN AGAIN LATE ON
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

BECAUSE OF THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STORMS...SPOTTER ACTIVATION
WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

DSA