Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
900 AM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

.UPDATE FOR REMOVAL OF FLOOD WATCH...

.DISCUSSION...

415 AM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.  SAID BOUNDARY FINALLY...HOPEFULLY...GETS SOUTH OF CWA BY
12Z SATURDAY.

STILL DEALING WITH REMNANTS OF MCS FROM EARLIER TONIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN COUNTIES...AND A COUPLE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS STILL ROLLING
INTO SW VA.  WEAK WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY...PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR MORE SHRA/TSRA SO WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
AREA.  HOWEVER...BELIEVE THAT WE WILL GET A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL.  MODELS DO NOT PRESENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY TODAY.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A NEARLY MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM
WILL HINDER SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT.  WILL BE ALLOWING FLOOD WATCH TO DROP
AT 8 AM.

THAT SAID...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANOTHER MCS TO ROLL ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT. CONVECTION FIRING IN MO/AR THIS AFTERNOON
WILL ROLL EASTWARD...POSSIBLY PROVIDING CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT
TONIGHT AS MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 50-60KTS MOVES BY.  AGREE WITH SPC
PLACEMENT OF SLIGHT RISK.  OF COURSE...THERE IS HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN WITH SUCH A SYSTEM...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-64.
WILL HAVE DAY SHIFT WATCH THIS CLOSELY AND ADVISE THAT A NEW WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT...WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY.  LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
BE IN A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT A BIT.

FRONT FINALLY MAKES A PUSH SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DIGGING A TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA.
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE
BACKSIDE...PROVIDING THE OOMPH TO GET THE FRONT THROUGH. KEEPING
MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW.  POPS SLOWLY
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
DISAPPEAR BY 12Z SATURDAY.

DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM MAV TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.  DID DIP A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW AT NORTHERN STATIONS SUCH AS PKB/CKB TONIGHT...WHICH
MAY GET BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.  ALSO KEPT VALUES AT OR ABOVE
MAV ON FRIDAY...GIVEN WARMISH H850 TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

FORECAST AREA WILL BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE DRIER AIR TO OUR
NORTH FOR SATURDAY.  EXACTLY WHERE THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL END UP
IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AS UPPER AIR SUPPORT MAY STREAK W/E ALONG
BOUNDARY. WILL LEAVE A 20 POP IN SOUTHERN WV AND SW VA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

955 PM EDT TUE MAY 25 2004

LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY IS PUSHING EAST AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.  HAVE
DECIDED TO POST FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA WHERE STORMS
FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST NIGHT LEFT SOME AREAS WET.

UPDATED POP GRIDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL AND
CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN.  BUMPED UP TEMPS A TOUCH AS WELL.

HC

&&

.AVIATION...

415 AM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

261200 TO 271200

COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH
SEVERAL UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES STREAKING E.  FIGURING LAYERED CLOUDS
AROUND 12Z WITH SOME VALLEY FOG DISSIPATING.  SOME SHOWERS MAY
LINGER.

HARD TO TIME ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
18Z.  LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WV...NONE.

VA...NONE.

KY...NONE.

OH...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
533 AM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-270930-
ATHENS OH-BARBOUR WV-BOONE WV-BOYD KY-BRAXTON WV-BUCHANAN VA-CABELL
WV-CALHOUN WV-CARTER KY-CLAY WV-DICKENSON VA-DODDRIDGE WV-FAYETTE
WV-GALLIA OH-GILMER WV-GREENUP KY-HARRISON WV-JACKSON WV-JACKSON
OH-KANAWHA WV-LAWRENCE OH-LAWRENCE KY-LEWIS WV-LINCOLN WV-LOGAN
WV-MASON WV-MCDOWELL WV-MEIGS OH-MINGO WV-MORGAN OH-NICHOLAS
WV-PERRY OH-PLEASANTS WV-POCAHONTAS WV-PUTNAM WV-RALEIGH WV-RANDOLPH
WV-RITCHIE WV-ROANE WV-TAYLOR WV-TYLER WV-UPSHUR WV-VINTON
OH-WASHINGTON OH-WAYNE WV-WEBSTER WV-WIRT WV-WOOD WV-WYOMING WV
533 AM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND MOST OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE AREA.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.  IF THE
THREAT INCREASES...A NEW FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON THURSDAY.

LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL REMAIN A THREAT UNTIL A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO CLEAR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CL