Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
330 AM MDT SUN JUL 11 2004

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS.

CURRENTLY: THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE US...KEEPING A LIGHT W-SW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE.
THERE WERE SOME WEAK RADAR ECHOS ACROSS THE E PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE BOTH SFC OBS AND SATTELITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND EVEN KALS WAS
REPORTING A DEWPOINT OF 47 DEG F.

TODAY AND TONIGHT: A COMPARISON OF MODEL AND OBSERVED DATA CLEARLY
SHOWS THAT MODELS DO NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON WHAT IS ACTUALLY
HAPPENING. META AND GFS MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT TOO WARM AND DRY
THIS AM...AND SHORTER RUN MODELS SUCH AS THE MM5 LOOK TO BE MORE
REALISTIC FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS. DEWPOINT GRIDS HAD
TO BE INCREASED SOMEWHAT TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

MODELS TRY TO DRY OUT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...YET SFC WINDS
SHIFT BACK TO AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION BY MIDDAY. WITH NO REAL FEATURE TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SEE NO REASON TO NOT EXPECT A DAY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ACROSS THE CWA...THOUGH PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS
ACTIVE. ONGOING FORECAST HAD A WARMING TREND FOR THE CWA TODAY WHICH
STILL LOOKS GOOD...BUT KEPT MAX TEMPS ON THE LOWER RANGE OF
GUIDANCE. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...BEST CAPE RESIDES ALONG THE CO/KS
BORDER TODAY...BUT DIMINISHES DURING THE AFTN. BEST SHEAR...THOUGH
NOT GREAT...LOOKS TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTN...
WITH AN ADDED BONUS OF FAVORED H5 VORTICITY. FEEL THAT SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS THERE...BUT VERY LIMITED. SO...WITH HEATING AND MOISTURE
ON TAP...INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED FOR ALL THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TODAY...WITH ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. MOORE//

.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

...HOTTER WITH A LITTLE LESS ACTIVITY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THEN A NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE...

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH AND EVERY
DAY FOR THE NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME WILL END UP HOTTER AND DRIER THAN THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY PERIOD.  FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...THE
LARGE WESTERN US UPPER HIGH SHIFTS AND CENTERS ITSELF OVER COLORADO
WITH A 595DM CORE.  THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE CAP OVER COLORADO AND
DECREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.  HOWEVER...BOTH
THE ETA AND GFS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
PRECIP OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  BASED ON THE GENEROUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...AND NO EVIDENCE
OF A GOOD KICKER TO MOVE THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA...THE MODELS
LOOK RIGHT.  IN FACT...THEY ARE PROBABLY A BIT LOW ON THE COVERAGE
AND POINT PRECIP AMOUNTS.  SO...LOW AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS TO REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALL AREAS.  SOMETIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...APPEARS A NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ENTER SOUTHERN COLORADO
THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AS A SHORTWAVE AND/OR MCS DIVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS...SENDING THE MOISTURE WESTWARD TO THE
MOUNTAINS.  HAVE SEEN THIS MOISTURE EVOLUTION BEFORE DURING THE
SUMMER CONVECTIVE SEASON.  IT APPEARS MONSOON MOISTURE WORKS ITS
WAY UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GETS
ENTRAINED IN THE SHORTWAVE HEADING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO BRING THE SHORTWAVE TO LIFE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO.  HOWEVER...IM NEVER SURE IF THE SHORTWAVE IS THERE
TO BEGIN WITH...OR IF IT DEVELOPS OUT OF THE CONVECTIVE ENERGY
COMING OVER THE RIDGE.  I KIND OF THINK IT DEVELOPS OUT OF THE
CONVECTIVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE RIDGE...MUCH LIKE IT DOES OVER
THE PLAINS FARTHER EAST.  A VORTICITY MAX CAN BE TRACKED MOVING
CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS...
IT CRANKS UP.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MOISTURE THAT
MOVES OVER THE AREA...IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT...SO CONVECTIVE ODDS SHOULD
STAY UP THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAIN CHANGE I MADE TO FORECASTS WAS TO
BOOST AFTERNOON/EVENING PRECIP ODDS FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ALSO ENDED UP IN
A LITTLE BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH FORECASTS BY SURROUNDING WFOS.  COOLER
TEMPS AFTER MID-WEEK WERE ALREADY REFLECTED WELL IN FORECASTS SO
NO CHANGES THERE. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
700 AM MDT SUN JUL 11 2004

COZ058>089-093>099-121300-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7500 FT-CROWLEY COUNTY-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN 7500
AND 11000 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
700 AM MDT SUN JUL 11 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE PLAINS...THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. HOWEVER...
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY DRY...SO THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.  A FEW
STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...
AS A NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN.  THESE STORMS SHOULD TEND
TO BE WETTER THAN THE ONES EARLIER IN THE WEEK...SO THE THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL RETURN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MM/LW