Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Phoenix, AZ
NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 23, 2004, 6:53 PM MST for Maricopa County, Arizona. It was in force for 22 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 23, 2004, 6:53 PM MST (01:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 23, 2004, 7:15 PM MST
- In force
- 22 min
- Issued by
- NWS Phoenix, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Maricopa County, AZ
The radar
The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 70 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 247 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -262 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2514 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 4 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 51 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS55 KPSR 240153 SVRPSR AZC013-240215- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 652 PM MST FRI JUL 23 2004 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA... NEAR THE TOWN OF SUNFLOWER AND NEARBY HIGHWAY 87. * UNTIL 715 PM MST * AT 644 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND LARGE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SUNFLOWER...OR ABOUT 22 MILES SOUTH OF PAYSON...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY. LAT...LON 3399 11147 3392 11157 3380 11148 3384 11139 $$ HV
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 23, 3:24 PM MST, 3 hours 29 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 23, 3:24 PM MST, 3 hours 29 minutes before
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-240545- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 325 PM FRI JUL 23 2004 SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT...THEN WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING WEST ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS...AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING TO MAINLY SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST...AND PUSHES THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH TO NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER. && .DISCUSSION... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE MORNING THINKING...STILL BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE AN UPSWING IN CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER HIGH NOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF PHX WITH A WEAK NLY STEERING FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS NRN AZ TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROF APCHG SERN AZ FROM NWRN MEXICO WILL GIVE STRONG DEFORMATION IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE OVER SRN AZ TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST DIFLUENCE ALOFT OVER SERN AZ. 18Z PHOENIX RAOB QUITE WET AND UNSTABLE...WITH 1.7 INCH PWAT...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE SRN DESERTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SCT STRONG STORMS FIRING OVER PARTS OF SERN AZ AND ECNTRL AZ AT 3 PM...AND STORMS ALSO FORMING ALONG THE ERN RIM. EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER SERN AZ TO BLOSSOM THIS EVE AND SEND OUTFLOWS TO THE N AND NW...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO OUR NORTH AND YIELD NEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SCNTRL DESERTS. HAVE UPPED OUR POPS AT PHOENIX TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT AS A RESULT. WRN DESERTS AND SERN CA ARE DRIER WITH LESS DYNAMICS...SO POPS WILL DECREASE STEADILY AS YOU MOVE WESTWARD. BY SATURDAY...UPPER HIGH SETS UP OVER NWRN AZ OR SRN NEVADA... PROVIDING A NLY TO NELY STEERING FLOW WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR ADVECTING RIM STORMS INTO THE SRN DESERTS. THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER OUR DESERTS...AS A GULF SURGE WILL KEEP FEEDING MOISTURE UP THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...AND THE MID LEVEL ANTICYC GYRE WILL KEEP FEEDING THE MOISTURE EASTWARD OVER OUR DESERTS. THUS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVE STORMS OVER THE SCNTRL SAT THRU TUE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. LATEST GFS CONTINUES THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING TROFFING AGAIN ALONG THE CA COAST MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS WOULD SET UP A SWLY FLOW INTO OUR WRN CWA. AS THIS OCCURS DRIER AIR WOULD SPREAD INTO OUR WRN CWA...ESPECIALLY SERN CA...AND LIMIT OR ELIMINATE ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS. THIS TREND IN THE MODELS IS ACCEPTED AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST. ERN CWA WILL STILL HAVE A LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS FROM WED THR FRI...AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && 11
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 23, 10:48 AM MST, 8 hours 5 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 1048 AM MST FRI JUL 23 2004 AZZ024-240500- SOUTHERN GILA/TONTO NF FOOTHILLS- 1048 AM MST FRI JUL 23 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE HEAVY RAINS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. WASHES MAY BEGIN FLOWING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THERE IS AN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS...EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PHOENIX (IN SMALL LETTERS) AZZ021>023-026>028-240500- GREATER PHOENIX AREA-NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY- NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS- SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS- 1048 AM MST FRI JUL 23 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY NOT PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN OR FLOODING. GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THEY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MINOR FLOODING OF ROADS AND WASHES...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS LEADING TO BLOWING DUST. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PHOENIX (IN SMALL LETTERS) AZZ020-025-CAZ030>033-240500- IMPERIAL COUNTY-JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK- LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA- RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY- 1048 AM MST FRI JUL 23 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. .DAY ONE...TODAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE EVENING HOURS. THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO OVER 40 MPH...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND BLOWING DUST. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PHOENIX (IN SMALL LETTERS)
The office that day
Everything else NWS Phoenix, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 4:46 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PSR | Maricopa | 59 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.