Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-170545-

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
340 PM MST FRI JUL 16 2004

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE EAST OF ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. BY THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS A BIT WESTWARD.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH A BIT OF
DRYING IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. IN
THE MEANTIME...TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THINGS HAVE COME TOGETHER QUIT NICELY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST OF
ALL...THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR
ALL OF MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTIES...SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...AND
WESTERN AND CNTRL PIMA COUNTY. THERE HAS BEEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
LOCATED NEAR APACHE JUNCTION/QUEEN CREEK AREA FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. AT ANY
RATE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WORK OUT
WELL FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE DESERTS
...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA...THROUGH AT
LEAST 8 PM THIS EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT...THE ATM SHOULD BE PRETTY
WORKED OVER...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DROPPING TO 10
TO 20 PERCENT. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A 10
TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS AREA IS NOT INCLUDED IN
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

BEYOND THIS EVENING (AND PER THIS MORNINGS DISCUSSION)...THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FROM A POSITION OVER CO THIS
WEEK...SOUTH AND POSSIBLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY...FLOW INTO MUCH OF
ARIZONA. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO CUT US OFF FROM AN EASTERLY WAVES
DEVELOPING OVER MEX AND TX. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING SOME
DRIER AIR WESTWARD INTO THE DESERTS. TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF A LOW
GRADE MONSOON FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
GOOD. WILL LIKELY KEEP A CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA (AZ ZONE 24 SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY)...WITH VERY
LOW (5 TO 10) POPS IN THE DESERTS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 639 FOR
MARICOPA...PINAL...SOUTHERN GILA...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIMA
COUNTIES THIS EVENING UNTIL 8 PM MST. SEE PRODUCT PHXSLSAZ
CA...NONE.

&&

22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1038 AM MST FRI JUL 16 2004

AZZ022>024-027-028-170700-
GREATER PHOENIX AREA-NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-SOUTHERN GILA/TONTO NF FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-
1038 AM MST FRI JUL 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
POSSIBLE UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY FROM 3PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

AZZ020-021-025-026-CAZ030>033-170700-
IMPERIAL COUNTY-JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-
1038 AM MST FRI JUL 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING
DUST...LIGHTNING...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.