Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Portland, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PDT MON JUL 12 2004

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
OREGON WILL SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT TURNING THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ONSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OUT OF THE S...WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING N THROUGH
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SHIFT E TOWARDS THE COAST.
&&

.DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A FEW TSTM CELLS OVER THE
CENTRAL CASCADES EARLIER THIS EVENING THAT HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA. AT 0240Z THE RADAR SHOWED SOME NEW CELLS
DEVELOPING EAST OF SALEM AND CORVALLIS MOVING NORTH INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE 00Z MESO ETA AND GFS SUPPORT THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND
EVEN EXTEND THE AREA NORTHWEST INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA TILL AT LEAST
12Z. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS TILL
12Z...AT WHICH TIME THE ONSHORE PUSH SHOULD START DAMPENING THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED N ALONG THE COAST PAST
NEWPORT AND METARS INDICATE ONSHORE FLOW HAS BEGUN OVER SW PART OF
FORECAST AREA. AS THE THERMAL INDUCED TROUGH SHIFTS E OVERNIGHT...A
GOOD SW MARINE PUSH SHOULD ENSUE. MARINE PUSH WILL STABILIZE AND COOL
AIR MASS IN AREAS W  OF THE CASCADES FOR TUE...WHILE SOUTHERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES LIFTING N WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES GOING TUE AND WED. AS UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PICKS UP MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
SHOULD SHIFT E OF FORECAST AREA THU. WITH DEEPENING MARINE AIR
OVERNIGHT AND A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH...EXPECT SOME FOG AND
DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT OVER COASTAL REGIONS. LIKENS

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...EXTENDED
MODELS TENDING TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION OF SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH E TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE AWAY FROM
THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAS SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ON THE N COAST.

.PRELIMINARY POINT POPS
AST 221122 PDX 21111- SLE 21111- EUG 1111--
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OR/WA...NONE.

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