Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO IDAHO
250 PM MDT THU AUG 19 2004

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE IN CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT.  AGAIN
HITTING UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS THE HARDEST WITH QPF AND THAT IS WHERE
BRUNT OF ACTIVITY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON .  SOUTH INTO SNAKE PLAIN AND
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS NOT NEARLY AS ACTIVE...BUT REMAINS PRETTY
UNSTABLE WITH MARGINAL LI VALUES OF -1 TO -2 AND CAPES AGAIN RANGING
FROM 5 TO 800 ON MESOETA VIEW.  MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE FLASH
FLOODING WITH ANY VERY INTENSE SLOW MOVING STORMS.  WAVE REALLY
DOESNT COME THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING SO KEPT SCATTERED TYPE POPS
IN FAR EASTERN HIGHLANDS ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LATEST TREND OF MESOETA AN GFS IS TO DRY OUT A BIT FRIDAY AS SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM WEST BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS IN FAR EAST SO AGAIN KEPT BEST POPS OUT THERE FOR FRI
AFTERNOON.  RIDGING LINGERS INTO SATURDAY SO TREND AGAIN FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS THAN TODAY BUT KEPT ISOLATED IN MTNS.

GFS STILL BRINING IN STRONG PACIFIC H5 LOW INTO WA STATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND STRONG SW FLOW RETURNS WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SO
SHOULD BE BETTER CHANCE FOR TSTMS REGION WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH
INSTABILITY AND WAVE MOVING THROUGH.  THE PASSAGE OF THAT WAVE SETS
TREND FOR TRANSITION TO VERY STRONG WNW FLOW WITH STRONG JET
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MON THROUGH WED BEFORE JET SAGS SOUTH.  THIS
PATTERN WOULD FAVOR VERY FAST MOVING WAVES AND A MOIST FLOW STRAIGHT
OFF PACIFIC SO SHOULD BE A GENERAL SHOWERY TYPE PATTERN WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.  OVERALL DIDNT CHANGE EXTENDED
GRIDS AT ALL AS THEY PRETTY MUCH REFLECTED THE CONTINUED GFS TRENDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
605 AM MDT THU AUG 19 2004

IDZ017>023-031-032-201200-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-
SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
605 AM MDT THU AUG 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WE ASK ALL TRAINED SPOTTERS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE ALL HAIL...WIND...AND HEAVY RAIN REPORTS.  THIS
INFORMATION SHOULD BE CALLED INTO THE LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR OTHER
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.