Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1200 PM MDT SUN JUL 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF SURFACE FRONT STILL LINGER FROM SODA SPRINGS TO JEROME
AREA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER IT. FRONT SHOULD
SLIP SOUTH OF STATE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. H3 80KT JET CORE
PROPAGATING FROM WASHINGTON STATE OVER CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT VORTICITY MAX
OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA THAT WILL SLIDE ROUGHLY THROUGH
ISLAND PARK AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE JET WILL BRING IN SOME
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST EFFECTS FELT
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SUN VALLEY TO BLACKFOOT. LIMITED SCOURING OF
VALLEY MOISTURE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM INFLUENCE OF UPPER JET. THIS
SHOULD TIGHTEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY INTO THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. STRENGTH OF WINDS
SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO 5 TO 15
MPH AS EVENING 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES APPROACH.

SURFACE LOW THAT FORMS OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS PER MESOETA COULD SLIP
INTO THE UPPER VALLEY WITH NORTHERLY H7 WINDS ALOFT FORCING WEAK
CONVERGENCE AROUND ARCO TO IDAHO FALLS. THAT ADDS ANOTHER DIMENSION
TO RISK OF EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HOPEFULLY THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY THEN.

RECAPITULATION...WILL UPDATE GRIDS TO REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DECREASING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING BUT LINGERING OVER THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS TONIGHT.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SURVICK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
610 AM MDT SUN JUL 04 2004

IDZ017>023-031-032-051200-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-
SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
610 AM MDT SUN JUL 04 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO

.DAY ONE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.  SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WE ASK ALL TRAINED SPOTTERS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE ALL HAIL...WIND AND HEAVY RAIN
REPORTS.  THIS INFORMATION SHOULD BE CALLED INTO THE LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER
HOTLINE...OR OTHER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.