Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
300 PM MDT SAT JUL 3 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NEAR STANLEY TO TWIN FALLS.  EXTRAPOLATION OF RADAR FEATURES
INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESS TO POCATELLO BY 500
PM AND ISLAND PARK AREA BY 700 PM THIS EVENING. SOME FIELD REPORTS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY HAVE
INCLUDED PEA SIZE HAIL AND UP TO .5 INCH RAIN. SATELLITE WINDS SHOW
UPWARDS OF 30KT WINDS NEAR 250 MB LEVEL...STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY
AND MAY ADD TO STORM ORGANIZATION TODAY. 18Z MESOETA STALLS THE
SURFACE FRONT IN EAST TO WEST FASHION FROM BURLEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA AND DOES NOT COMPLETELY MOVE IT OUT OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO UNTIL
ALMOST 12Z. MAIN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES BY MIDNIGHT BUT GFS HINTS
AT SECOND MINOR FEATURE BEHIND IT. WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN FORECAST PAST MIDNIGHT.

H3 80KT JET ROUNDING TOP OF 135W RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND PROJECTED
BY GFS TO NOSE INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCAL STUDY FAVORS BREEZY WINDS IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND
LOWER SNAKE PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN THE
EVENING INCHING UP TO FIREWORKS TIME. ON THE ONE HAND THIS PROVIDES
THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY IN AWHILE TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
FROM THE PAST WEEK OR TWO. ON THE OTHER HAND WINDS MAY BE TOUCH AND
GO FOR FESTIVITIES. MOISTURE MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

MORE COMPLETE DRYING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK
FROM RECENT WEATHER AS TRANSITORY SHORT WAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA.

LATEST GFS HOLDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A
BIT FURTHER NORTH INCLUDING THE MOISTURE. COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SO WE MAY BE DRIER AND BREEZIER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
ANOTHER TRANSITORY RIDGE FOLLOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PER LATEST GFSX
SO FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IS DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

RS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
530 AM MDT SAT JUL 03 2004

IDZ017>023-031-032-041200-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-
SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
530 AM MDT SAT JUL 03 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO

.DAY ONE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.  SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRIMARILY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ISOLATED HAIL...AND SPOTTY
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WE ASK ALL TRAINED SPOTTERS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE ALL HAIL...WIND AND HEAVY RAIN
REPORTS.  THIS INFORMATION SHOULD BE CALLED INTO THE LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER
HOTLINE...OR OTHER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.