Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
250 PM MDT THU MAY 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...MAJOR UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW THIS AFTN.
JET CORE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROF AND MOVING INTO SW ID.  THE
COMBINATION OF JET DYNAMICS AND A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MOVING INTO WRN ID...AND SCT
CONVECTION OVER ERN ID.  THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVERNIGHT
WITH THE JET BECOMING MORE SRLY.  THE MAIN WAVE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
REACH ERN ID AROUND SUNSET.  THE 18Z ETA RUN NOW PROJECTS THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIR INTO ERN ID AFTER DARK.  THIS SHOULD INHIBIT THE THREAT
OF SEVERE TSTMS SOMEWHAT...BUT THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
WILL REQUIRE THAT THE EVENING TSTMS BE MONITORED CAREFULLY.  THE
AIRMASS REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THRU THE NIGHT...SO WILL CARRY
MENTION OF TSTMS THRU FRI.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SFC WINDS
PICKING UP IN ITS WAKE.  POST FRONTAL PRES GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG
INTO SAT AFTN...SO LOOKS LIKE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY
CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER TROF LINGERS INTO SAT AND WILL RESULT IN SCTD SHOWERS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SAT AFTN.  BY SUN...THE TROF WS WILL EAST OF
ID.  STRONG NW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND COLD UPPER TEMPS MAY STILL SET
OFF A FEW SHOWERS SAT NITE AND SUN MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL MTMS AND
ERN HIGHLANDS.  BROAD RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PAC NW ON
MONDAY WITH WARMIER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD
PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
400 AM MDT THU MAY 27 2004

IDZ017>023-031-032-281200-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-
SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
400 AM MDT THU MAY 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STORM PREDICTION
CENTER ADVERTISING SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PLACEMENT APPEARS APPROPRIATE WITH
BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY OVER ERN OREGON/SW IDAHO.  DAY/EVENING SHIFT
WILL WANT TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT AS MESO-ETA INDICATING SOME
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS THE MAGIC VALLEY
00-03Z THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY MOVES INLAND FRIDAY AS UPPER JET ALIGNS OVER SE IDAHO.
JET SUPPORT AND PROXIMITY OF FRONT PLACES BEST PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERE
POTENTIAL PROBABLY POSITIONED FURTHER SOUTH OVER NRN UTAH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WE ASK ALL TRAINED SPOTTERS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD BE CALLED INTO THE LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE
WEATHER HOTLINE...OR OTHER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.