Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO IDAHO
330 AM MDT SUN JUL 18 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS AGREE ON BRINING SHORT WAVE UP FROM NEVADA AND INTO CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TODAY. GFS EVEN CLOSES H7 CIRCULATION.  ZONES 18 AND 31
SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORED AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT SO HAVE PUSHED POPS
FOR TODAY INTO LIKELY CATEGORY.  SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN THE
UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS TOWARDS THIS EVENING.
WITH SHORT WAVE OVERHEAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS FORECAST AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL OVER ONE
INCH AND MODEL QPF ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS APPROACHES
HALF INCH. WILL NEED TO WATCH DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR HEAVY
RAIN IN FAVORED FLASH FLOOD AREAS AND POSSIBLY OLD BURN AREAS.

BY MONDAY LOW NEAR 130W MOVES CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. DURING THE DAY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO. WINDS ALOFT VEER TO WEST WITH A
LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVING IN. HOWEVER JET ALOFT PROVIDES ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER MINOR SHORT WAVE COMES
THROUGH ON TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD REBOUND OVER THE GREAT BASIN
DRIVING VALLEY TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

RS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
600 AM MDT SUN JUL 18 2004

IDZ017>023-031-032-191200-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-
SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
600 AM MDT SAT JUL 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO

.DAY ONE...
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.  VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH INTO IDAHO TODAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND SET OFF NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA FROM SUN VALLEY NORTH TO STANLEY.  OLD
FOREST FIRE BURN AREAS FROM LAST YEAR MAY BE SUCCEPTABLE TO RAPID
RUN OFF.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.  SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON MONDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH MID WEEK UNDER
A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WE ASK ALL TRAINED SPOTTERS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE ALL HAIL...WIND...AND HEAVY RAIN REPORTS.  THIS
INFORMATION SHOULD BE CALLED INTO THE LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR OTHER
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

RS