Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1125 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2004

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
BASED ON THE RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND THE LATEST RUC AND ETA MODEL
RUNS...STILL SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PITTSBURGH AREA INTO
MONDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED LIFT AND INSTABILITY...HAVE DROPPED THE
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...AND
FORECASTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
70-75 RANGE STILL LOOKED GOOD PER RECENT SURFACE DATA AND
GFS/ETA/NGM MOS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2004

AVIATION...

UPPER LOW TO REMAIN OVER OHIO VALLEY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WAVES
OF PRECIP TO ROTATE AROUND LOW WITH SOME OF IT HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN TERMINALS. MID DECK TO LOWER TO 030-040 FOOT
DECKS WITH ONSET OF NEXT WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE IN BY MID TO LATE
MORNING FROM SE TO NW. COULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE USUAL
SPOTS /FKL DUJ ZZV/ WHERE RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER. SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY MID MORNING.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

UPR LO OVR ERN OH PROGGED TO MOV LTL DURG NEXT 36H. NRN ZNS HV ALRDY
SEEN A DECENT SHOT OF RNFL OVRNGT. EXPECT AREAS OF SHWRS AND EMBDD
TSTMS CONT TO MOV NWD THRU CNTRL PA THEN WRAP WWD INTO NRN PTN CWA.
HV ISSUED FLOOD WATCH FOR NRN AND MTN ZNS THRU 10 PM. ELSW WENT WITH
LKLY POPS TDA INTO TNGT.

UPR LO BGNS TO OPEN UP DURG MON...WITH TROF AXIS FINALLY MOVG E OF
CWA BY 12Z TUE. ANOTHER WK FNT PUSHES THRU RGN TUE. KEPT CHC POPS
ALL AREAS MON THRU TUE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

WED SHUD BE DRY...THEN ANOTHER SLOW MOVG CDFNT APCHS FM THE WEST THU
AND PUSHES THRU RGN BY LATE FRI. SO MENTIONED CHC SHWRS/TSTMS THU
AND FRI. TEMPS SHUD RMN NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
524 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2004

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-180922-
ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-BEAVER PA-BELMONT OH-BROOKE WV-BUTLER PA-
CARROLL OH-CLARION PA-COLUMBIANA OH-COSHOCTON OH-FAYETTE PA-
FOREST PA-GARRETT MD-GREENE PA-GUERNSEY OH-HANCOCK WV-HARRISON OH-
INDIANA PA-JEFFERSON PA-JEFFERSON OH-LAWRENCE PA-MARION WV-
MARSHALL WV-MERCER PA-MONONGALIA WV-MONROE OH-MUSKINGUM OH-NOBLE OH-
OHIO WV-PRESTON WV-TUCKER WV-TUSCARAWAS OH-VENANGO PA-WASHINGTON PA-
WESTMORELAND PA-WETZEL WV-
524 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND GARRETT COUNTY MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND GARRETT COUNTY
MARYLAND INTO THIS EVENING. REPEATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN CAUSE
FLOODING OF STREAMS AND CREEKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
144 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2004

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-030-
WVZ001>003-182000-
ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-BEAVER PA-BELMONT OH-BROOKE WV-BUTLER PA-
CARROLL OH-CLARION PA-COLUMBIANA OH-COSHOCTON OH-FOREST PA-
GUERNSEY OH-HANCOCK WV-HARRISON OH-INDIANA PA-JEFFERSON PA-
JEFFERSON OH-LAWRENCE PA-MERCER PA-MUSKINGUM OH-OHIO WV-
TUSCARAWAS OH-VENANGO PA-WASHINGTON PA-WESTMORELAND PA-
144 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2004

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
AREAS FROM LATROBE...TO INDIANA...TO NEAR FRANKLIN. A SMALL CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED BETWEEN ZAINESVILLE
AND NEW PHILADELPHIA...WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT.

THE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF GENERATING RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH
PER HOUR...WITH MULTIPLE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS
THE SAME LOCATIONS.

RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
SPOTS...AND IN ADDITION TO RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

15