Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Warnings in 2004

Tornado Warning 63, NWS Paducah, KY

October 18, 2004New Madrid County, Missouri; Fulton County, Kentucky

NWS Paducah, KY issued this tornado warning at Oct 18, 2004, 6:03 PM CDT for New Madrid County, Missouri; Fulton County, Kentucky. It was in force for 57 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 18, 2004, 6:03 PM CDT (23:03 UTC)
Expired: Oct 18, 2004, 7:00 PM CDT
In force: 57 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Fulton County, KY, New Madrid County, MO

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this tornado warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 18, 5:05 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 188 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1504 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -6 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 520 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 390 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 482 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 3.3
Supercell composite: 16.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WFUS53 KPAH 182303
TORPAH
KYC075-MOC143-190000-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
602 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  FULTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY
  NEW MADRID COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 558 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION 8 MILES WEST OF GIDEON...
  OR ABOUT 9 MILES EAST OF PIGGOTT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CATRON...HOWARDVILLE...MARSTON...NEW   
MADRID...PARMA...PORTAGEVILLE...RISCO...BADERVILLE...KERTON...COMO 
...HARTZELL...KEWANEE...AND POINT PLEASANT

NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE ACTION SEEK SHELTER...BY MOVING INTO A
BASEMENT...OR INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.
ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3639 8997 3639 8997 3658 8996 3663 8989
      3662 8972 3673 8970 3678 8963 3647 8947
      3647 8949 3649 8949 3650 8952 3645 8956
      3641 8968 3643 8973 3638 8978

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this tornado warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this tornado warning went out at Oct 18, 3:40 AM CDT, 14 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 18, 3:40 AM CDT, 14 hours 23 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WILL NEED TO BE AS BRIEF AS POSSIBLE DUE TO ONGOING WEATHER
SITUATION. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS LIE WITH PRECIP CHANCES...SVR
WEATHER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SFC FEATURES.
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO EAST CENTRAL MO. MAIN FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY TODAY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT...ESP ACROSS SW IN AND SOUTHEAST IL. COULD BE SOME ISOLD SVR
STORMS TODAY...BUT REALLY THINK THE BEST CHC OF ORGANIZED SVR STORMS
WILL COME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE SFC COLD FRONT/DRY LINE OUT IN SE MO AND CNTRL ARKANSAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. AS PER SPC DISCO...THESE STORMS MAY ACTUALLY FORM AN
MCS TYPE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO WRN KY AND SW IN.

SFC FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS OVER WRN KY
LATER TUE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING..ESP IF WE GET GOOD HEATING
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. UPPER FORCING IS NOT GREAT...BUT
STRONG INSTABILITY...LIFT FROM SFC FRONT AND MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF
FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO POP AFTERNOON STORMS SOUTH OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY.

FOR WED...MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY WITH GFS PUSHING THE SFC FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES...WHILE THE ETA HANGS THE FRONT
OVER OUR AREA. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...REALLY THINK THE ETA
SOLN LOOKS BEST...BUT THE GFS HAS BEEN REALLY GOOD WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTS FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS...SO WILL GO
WITH A COMPROMISE HERE AND TAKE THE FRONT INTO TN. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD DRY US OUT A BIT IN THE WED/THU TIME FRAME. WILL NOT MAKE MUCH
CHANGE AFTER THAT TO THE EXTENDED...BUT IF NEW GFS IS CORRECT...THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. UPPER FORCING
AND MOISTURE RETURN SUGGEST SQUALL LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...WILL GO ABOVE NGM/MAV MOS NUMBERS
TONIGHT DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS. WILL GO CLOSER ETA MOS.
WILL ALSO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ETA AND MAV MOS TEMPS ON WED
TIME FRAME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF SFC FRONTAL POSITION. MODELS ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

MEFFERT

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 18, 4:36 AM CDT, 13 hours 27 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
436 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-191000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAPE GIRARDEAU MO...CARBONDALE IL...
GREENVILLE MO...HARRISBURG IL...HENDERSON KY...HOPKINSVILLE KY...
MAYFIELD KY...MOUNT VERNON IL...MURRAY KY...NEW MADRID MO...
OWENSBORO KY...PADUCAH KY...PETERSBURG IN...
POPLAR BLUFF MO AND PRINCETON IN
436 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER MISSOURI AND
ARKANSAS...EAST OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH EACH ROUND
OF STORMS IN A GIVEN AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY...TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 18, 1:44 PM CDT, 4 hours 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
144 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0107 PM     HAIL             1 S GOREVILLE           37.54N 88.97W
10/18/2004  0.75 INCH        JOHNSON            IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

Special weather statement, Oct 18, 4:37 PM CDT, 1 hour 26 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
437 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

ILZ080-081-084-085-088-089-092-093-KYZ001>004-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-190000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-
CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-HICKMAN KY-JACKSON IL-
JOHNSON IL-MISSISSIPPI MO-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY IL-PERRY MO-PULASKI IL-
RIPLEY MO-SCOTT MO-STODDARD MO-UNION IL-WAYNE MO-WILLIAMSON IL-
437 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

...STRONG STORMS MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

AN LINE OF STRONG SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND PUSHING EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  THESE WILL HAVE THE LIKELY POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...RAINFALL OF UP TO
AN INCH AND A HALF AN HOUR...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING.  BE AWARE
FOR RAPID WEATHER CHANGES THROUGHOUT THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST.

MTF

Local storm report, Oct 18, 5:23 PM CDT, 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
523 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     HAIL             LODI                    37.26N 90.45W
10/18/2004  1.00 INCH        WAYNE              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DLL

Local storm report, Oct 18, 5:47 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
547 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     HAIL             SEDGEWICKVILLE          37.52N 89.91W
10/18/2004  1.75 INCH        BOLLINGER          MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DLL

Local storm report, Oct 18, 5:52 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
552 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             PATTON JUNCTION         37.46N 90.03W
10/18/2004  1.00 INCH        BOLLINGER          MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DLL

Local storm report, Oct 18, 5:54 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
554 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             4 N PATTON JUNCTION     37.52N 90.03W
10/18/2004  2.50 INCH        BOLLINGER          MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DLL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 18, 6:55 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Ripley	50 min
Oct 18, 8:35 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Stoddard	25 min
Oct 18, 9:11 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Mississippi, Scott	49 min
Oct 18, 4:23 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Wayne	52 min
Oct 18, 5:09 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Perry	51 min
Oct 18, 5:14 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Wayne	31 min
Oct 18, 5:45 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Cape Girardeau	60 min
Oct 18, 5:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Perry	47 min
Oct 18, 6:08 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	New Madrid	52 min
Oct 18, 6:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Butler, Stoddard	26 min
Oct 18, 6:42 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Cape Girardeau, Scott	48 min
Oct 18, 6:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Stoddard	31 min
Oct 18, 6:48 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Mississippi	42 min
Oct 18, 9:41 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Ballard, McCracken	34 min
Oct 18, 1:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	McCracken	29 min
Oct 18, 2:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Lyon	55 min
Oct 18, 2:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Caldwell	47 min

Nearby

Tornado Warnings in Missouri, 2004 Tornado Warnings in Kentucky, 2004 Every tornado warning in 2004 Tornadoes in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.