Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
225 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

THUNDERSTORMS HAD REDEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF THE FA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS OVER OUR REGION HAD DESTABILIZED AS INDICATED BY
LAPS LI VALUES OF MINUS 5 TO MINUS 9...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OR
MOVE INTO OUR REGION WILL HAVE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE
THREAT.  GIVEN THIS...ALONG WITH SOUTHWARD SAGGING SURFACE FRONT AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING CONVECTION... EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE INTO AND INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FA THIS
EVENING AND OVER THE REST OF THE FA MAINLY WEDNESDAY.  AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS HIGHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DIMINISH AS IT SAGS
SLOWLY SOUTH IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH SHOULD BRING A DECREASING TREND
TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
LIMITED INFLUX OF DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR ALONG WITH THE WASHING OUT
OF THE FRONT AS EVIDENCED BY REDEVELOPMENT OF A BROADSCALE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WILL LEND TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.  THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT (SLIGHT RISK) REMAINS IN TACT THROUGH DAY 3/FRIDAY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT INSTABILITY.  BY FRIDAY...ETA LIFTED INDICES ARE AT A
MINIMUM THROUGH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN.

HAVE UPPED DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPS A BIT THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS
GIVEN LESSER SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF DRIER AIR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SHANKLIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
345 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-261000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIKESTON...POPLAR BLUFF...PERRYVILLE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PADUCAH...OWENSBORO...MURRAY...MAYFIELD...
MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...EVANSVILLE...HERRIN...
HARRISBURG...CARMI...CARBONDALE AND CAIRO
345 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
THE GREEN RIVER REGION OF WESTERN KENTUCKY...INCLUDING
HENDERSON...OWENSBORO AND CALHOUN.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE REGION.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND MAY BE REQUESTED
AT LATER TIMES AS WELL.

SHANKLIN