Alert archive / Illinois / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Paducah, KY

May 23, 2004Wayne County, Illinois

NWS Paducah, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 23, 2004, 11:54 AM CDT for Wayne County, Illinois. It was in force for 36 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 23, 2004, 11:54 AM CDT (16:54 UTC)
Expired: May 23, 2004, 12:30 PM CDT
In force: 36 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Wayne County, IL

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 23, 10:45 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 4.9 hours before the alert went out and 192 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 435 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -95 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 621 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 18 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 59 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 23, 2:05 AM CDT, 9 hours 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 23, 2:05 AM CDT, 9 hours 49 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
205 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

TODAY...MODELS SHIFT THE 850 MB MOISTURE AXIS AND INSTABILITY
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
MODELS ALSO SHIFT THE MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SLIGHTLY SOUTH...
THEREBY WEAKENING THE CAP OVER THESE SAME AREAS. MODELS ALSO SHOW A
VORT MAX CROSSING THE SAME AREA TODAY...THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO
THOSE AREAS.

CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN HIGHER OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ETA/GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR INTERSTATE 64 BY 12Z MONDAY. THE
BOUNDARY IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY NEVER MAKES INTO THE CWA...STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA CONTAINING WEAK IMPULSES
THAT COULD TRIGGER CONVECTION IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GFS SHOWS
AFTERNOON LIFTED INDICES FROM MINUS 7 TO 9 ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT MID LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO HOLD THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATES A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES BEYOND 5TH PERIOD.

WILL USE MAV/FWC MOS COMPROMISE FOR HIGHS AND WILL FOLLOW
PERSISTENCE BY KEEPING LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

JAP

Hazardous weather outlook, May 23, 4:14 AM CDT, 7 hours 40 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 23, 11:18 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Jefferson	42 min
May 23, 12:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	White	39 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.