Severe Thunderstorm Warning 321, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
350 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS PRECIP CHANCES...ACCOMPANYING
SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
WITH A WARM FRONT PROTRUDING EAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WAS DEPICTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE ARKLATEX REGION...WITH A WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT
ALREADY NOSING INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

RIGHT UP TO THE 00Z WED MODEL RUNS...THE GFS HAD THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY
WELL FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE BATON HAS
BEEN PASSED TO THE ETA. THE 00Z GFS WAS ALREADY TOO FAST WITH THE
TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM AT 06Z...AND GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS
EXPONENTIATE THE PROBLEMS FROM THERE. MEANWHILE...BOTH THE 00Z AND
06Z ETA RUNS SEEM TO HAVE THIS SYSTEM PEGGED. THUS...WE WILL FOLLOW
THE ETA PRETTY MUCH VERBATIM FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FIRST FOR TODAY...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT BEST. ROUND 2 IS ALREADY ON ITS
WAY AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS. THIS ROUND OF
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH LITTLE FANFARE...ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

AS THE DRY SLOT INTRUDES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
COME TO AN END FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING...AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EVEN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
ADJACENT COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...AND INDIANA. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE ACTIVITY. THE
ETA FORECASTS A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND THE PURCHASE AREA OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY BY MID MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...THE NOSE OF A 100+ KNOT
H3 JET CORE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
SUIT...EXTENDING EAST INTO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
AND THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN KENTUCKY BY NOON.

THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY HOW
MUCH SURFACE HEATING OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...WE EXPECT MOST OF THIS
AREA WILL REACH OR EXCEED 60 DEGREES. REGARDLESS OF THE
INSTABILITY...STRONG SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE
CONVECTION. WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT NOT ONLY THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL
AND WIND...BUT ALSO THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES. A POSSIBLE SCENARIO IS
FOR STORM DEVELOP NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND MID MORNING...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN
LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ONSET...THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WOULD LIKELY MERGE INTO A
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

BY TONIGHT...THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
LEFTOVER WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION TO DEAL WITH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE
BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL EXIST. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION
COULD STILL MIX WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA BEFORE COMING TO AN END
OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BISECTS
THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY. IN FACT...A GRADIENT OF 20 DEGREES OR MORE
IS POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR THE MOST PART...WE WILL RELY ON
THE ETA TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT-TERM.

EXPECT NO CHANGES FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND BEYOND. MUCH COOLER
THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY PER THE ECMWF AND
GFS...WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

PRESLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
723 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-251100-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
723 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. OUTSIDE THE MODERATE RISK AREA...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND AND HAIL. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AND CLOSE
TO THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
GREATEST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

THE TYPE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WILL BE FAST MOVING...AND
THEIR POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES IS AT TIMES DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST. THUS...YOU ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER FORECAST...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER WHEN A WARNING IS
ISSUED OR IF YOU FEEL THREATENED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.

PRESLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
710 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-241700-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
710 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. OUTSIDE THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REST
OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND MOST OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR-STATE REGION TODAY.
AHEAD OF THE LOW...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE. THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS WILL BE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND. THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN AND CLOSE TO THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

THE TYPE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WILL BE FAST MOVING...AND
THEIR POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES IS AT TIMES DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST. THUS...YOU ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER FORECAST...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER WHEN A WARNING IS
ISSUED OR IF YOU FEEL THREATENED.

RJP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
929 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-241830-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY IL-PERRY MO-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION IL-UNION KY-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE IL-WAYNE MO-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
929 AM CST (1029 AM EST) WED NOV 24 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION...

A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TODAY OVER
PART OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. SURROUNDING
THIS MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND THE
REMAINDER OF WEST KENTUCKY.

THE TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST WEATHER CONCERN WILL STRETCH FROM
APPROXIMATELY 11 AM CST TO 500 AM CST. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY START OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND WEST KENTUCKY...
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR PERSONS TRAVELING THROUGH WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF ANY RAIN ACTIVITY TODAY. IF YOU
LIVE IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...LOOK FOR GUSTY
NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING
AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS MAY TOSS AROUND LOOSE OBJECTS
LEFT OUTDOORS AND TOPPLE SOME TREES WEAKENED BY RECENT RAINFALL.

WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR...WIND GUSTS MAY REACH NEAR 50 MPH. THESE
WINDS MAY CAUSE DIFFICULTY IN STEERING OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...
SUCH AS TRUCKS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL
TELEVISION AND RADIO FOR ANY FURTHER WEATHER UPDATES...AS WELL AS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS OR WATCHES LATER TODAY.

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1047 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004

ILZ089>094-KYZ001>013-MOZ111-112-114-241800-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-CALDWELL KY-CALLOWAY KY-CARLISLE KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-FULTON KY-GRAVES KY-HARDIN IL-HICKMAN KY-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-NEW MADRID MO-POPE IL-PULASKI IL-SCOTT MO-TRIGG KY-
1047 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004

...LOCAL WIND GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE QUAD STATE REGION...

NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BANDS OF SHOWERS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND OVER THE PURCHASE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY.

LOCAL WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS RAIN
MOVES NORTHEAST AROUND 40 MPH. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR STRONG WINDS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING EDGE OF
THE SHOWERS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THESE SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

THE STORMS OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL MOVE FROM A CAPE GIRARDEAU...NEW
MADRID MISSOURI LINE TO A DIXON SPRINGS ILLINOIS...MURRAY KENTUCKY
LINE BY NOON.

THE STRONG WINDS MAY TOSS AROUND LOOSE OBJECTS LEFT OUTDOORS...AS
WELL AS FALL SMALL TREES WEAKENED BY RECENT RAINFALL.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL
TELEVISION AND RADIO FOR ANY FURTHER WEATHER UPDATES...AS WELL AS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS OR WATCHES LATER TODAY.

SMITH