Severe Thunderstorm Warning 317, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO ADD FULTON COUNTY TO FFA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
135 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH
ELECTION DAY.

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTH NORTHEAST...EDGING THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MOVEMENT OF THIS APPROACHING
SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AND PUSH AN ELONGATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER ...DIFFERENCES LIE IN THE TIMING OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. AT 06Z TUES...AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIES OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...ACTUALLY LINES UP VERY WELL WITH THE GOING
FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...BY 12Z TUES...THE GFS SHIFTS THAT AXIS AS WELL
AS THE COLD FRONT...FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...THE ETA IS SLOW TO MOVE THE AXIS OF
RAIN...AND KEEPS IT OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
THE ETA FINALLY MOVES THE AXIS OF MOISTURE/PRECIP INTO THE HEART OF
THE CWA...WHILE THE GFS CENTERS THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIP OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE 500 MB FLOW STILL RATHER PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...IT WOULD SEEM A FAIRLY SLOW MOVING FRONT IS MORE LIKELY. AND
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE...THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL BLEND THE
SOLUTIONS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS...BUT REALLY THINK ETA SOLUTION
(SLOWER) SEEMS A BIT MORE REASONABLE BASED ON THE SOUTHERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW PARALLELING THE SFC FRONT.

SO...ALL IN ALL...ONGOING FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD. WILL
LIKELY EXPAND THE WATCH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST INTO EXTREME WESTERN
KY TO COORDINATE A LITTLE BETTER WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND HPC QPF
PRODUCTS. WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EVEN MORE TO THE EAST ON
TUE...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE THAT DECISION TO LATER SHIFTS.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS (AS WELL AS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY)
INCREASE ON TUE NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS ALL THE PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA...WHILE THE ETA BULLSEYES THE WEST KENTUCKY WITH OVER AN INCH
OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE...AS THE FRONT IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...A SFC LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION...ALTHOUGH MODELS CANNOT AGREE AS TO THE PATH THAT
THIS LOW WILL TAKE. NONETHELESS...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
FEATURE AND ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ...CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL END.

EXTENDED FORECAST FROM THU ON LOOKS DRY FOR NOW AS NORTHWEST FLOW
FINALLY SETS UP. WILL BE A COUPLE COLD FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH (THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING AND THEN AGAIN AROUND SUNDAY TIME
FRAME) BUT LITTLE IF ANY RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW POINTS TO MID CLOUDS
WITH THE FRONTS AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. ACCORDING TO THE
GFS...VERY DEEP MID/UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL
LIKELY BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH IT.

TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM ONLY NEEDED MINOR TWEEKING...AS
GUIDANCE NUMBERS SEEM IN LINE. HOWEVER...GREAT DIFFERENCES IN MOS
NUMBERS APPEAR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS MODELS DIFFER ON
THE PLACEMENT OF RAIN WITH NEW SFC LOW. WILL TREND SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE FOR NOW AND SEE HOW SUBSEQUENT RUNS DEAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR BALLARD...CARLISLE...HICKMAN...
MCCRACKEN...FULTON AND GRAVES.
MO...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR ALL COUNTIES.
IL...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR ALL COUNTIES.
IN...NONE.

&&

WIELGOS/MEFFERT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1235 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

ILZ088-092-093-MOZ086-087-100-109>112-114-011930-
ALEXANDER-BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
PULASKI-SCOTT-STODDARD-UNION IL-WAYNE MO-
1235 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI THROUGH 130 PM.  THE STRONGEST INDIVIDUAL STORMS ARE
LOCATED NEAR US HIGHWAY 60.  A WIND GUST OF UP TO 47 MPH WAS
RECORDED IN POPLAR BLUFF.  WIND GUSTS OF THIS HIGH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST AT 20 MPH.  ALSO...EXPECT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAPIDLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

FRIEDLEIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
145 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

ILZ088-092-093-KYZ001>004-MOZ087-111-112-114-012045-
ALEXANDER-BALLARD-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARLISLE-FULTON-HICKMAN-MISSISSIPPI-
NEW MADRID-PULASKI-SCOTT-UNION IL-
145 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER
...

A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH STRONG WINDS IS POSITIONED ALONG AND JUST
WEST OF I-55 IN SOUPOSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND OF SHOWERS...AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...AS IT MOVES EAST AT 40 MPH.  ALSO...EXPECT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAPIDLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES. LOCATIONS
IMPACTED BY 300 PM INCLUDE...CAPE GIRARDEAU...CAIRO...AND NEW MADRID.

FRIEDLEIN