Severe Thunderstorm Warning 314, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
245 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004

.DISCUSSION...

ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. BIGGEST CHALLENGES WITH THIS PACKAGE
CONTINUE TO BE WHEN TO TURN THE PRECIP FAUCET ON AND OFF OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE...BUT UNFORTUNATELY NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DEFLECT
ENERGY/MOISTURE/PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. AT PRESS TIME A WEAK WARM FRONT
WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SAGGED SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. OVERNIGHT MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH APPROACHING LOW/FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
BECOME STATIONARY ALONG OR NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN ALL DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL SPREAD PRECIP
BACK ACROSS THE CWA. THE CWA WILL BE BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR ON
FRIDAY SO SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED. FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SO WILL KEEP POPS
THERE AS WELL. THIS FRONT IS ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY JUST
SOUTH OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND RETURN BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
THIS VERY STRONG LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CWA ON MONDAY. COULD GET VERY INTERESTING ON MONDAY IF ALL
PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER. WILL KEEP LOWER POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT DUE
TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM. ON TUESDAY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

USED A MULTI MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

JAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
440 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-271000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
440 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST DAILY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.