Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
235 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS SCT CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA. AND SINCE MIDNIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KY. LAPS
SHOWS VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA...WHILE THE RUC DEPICTS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVG THROUGH. DO NOT PLAN ON HAVING ANYTHING IN
THE GRIDS COME PRESS TIME WITH REGARD TO THIS. OUR FOCUS WILL BE ON
MCS CURRENTLY OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MODELS
ARE ALREADY BEHIND THE 8 BALL WITH THIS COMPLEX (TOO SLOW).
ORIGINALLY PLANNED ON HOLDING OFF POPS TIL VERY LATE WEST. BUT AFTER
LOOKING AT CURRENT SAT AND RADAR TRENDS...AGREE WITH SPC THAT
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST...FASTER THAN MODELS INDICATE. AND
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...FORECAST TO UNFOLD ACROSS WEST PARTS OF THE FA BY 18Z.

WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS TONIGHT. POP DEPICTION WILL LARGELY BE
DEPENDENT UPON OVERALL STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND WHAT FORM
IT ENDS UP TAKING ON BOTH COVERAGE AND MOVEMENT WISE. BUT CHANCES
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTH EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT. ETA SHOWS SFC LIS BELOW 0 OVER WEST
KY...WITH LOW LEVEL MSTR STILL IN PLACE (H8 DWPTS OVER 12 DEG C) AT
18Z. LOW TROP DRYING GETS GOING BY AROUND 00Z AS MOIST AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE FA. SO EXPECT A DRY NIGHT SATURDAY...AND DAY SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.

BREAK IN THE ACTION TO BE SHORT LIVED...AS BOTH THE ETA AND GFS SHOW
STRONG WAA DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY...SHIFTING EAST INTO
MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS BRING STRONG VERTICAL MOTION FIELD
INTO MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE IT ESE INTO THE FA MONDAY.
THUS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH
AND WEST...AND ALL AREAS MONDAY.

AFTER MONDAY...FEW IF ANY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST.
THROUGH THE WEEK...THE LATEST GFS LONG RANGE SHOWS STRONG VORTEX
SETTING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW
PATTERN W TO E AND SOMEWHAT ACTIVE. THUS HARD TO RULE OUT CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AT ANYTIME. MODELS USUALLY HAVE A HARD TIME PICKING OUT
FINE SCALE DETAILS...AND WILL USUALLY FLOP AROUND FROM ONE DAY TO
THE NEXT...AS FAR AS WHEN THERE WILL AND WILL NOT BE PRECIPITATION.
SO THERE IS NO REAL JUSTIFICATION IN ADJUSTING POPS ALL THAT MUCH IF
AT ALL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
423 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-191000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIKESTON...POPLAR BLUFF...PERRYVILLE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PADUCAH...OWENSBORO...MURRAY...MAYFIELD...
MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...EVANSVILLE...HERRIN...
HARRISBURG...CARMI...CARBONDALE AND CAIRO
423 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
505 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PERRYVILLE              37.73N 89.87W
06/18/2004                   PERRY              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 10 TO 12 FOOT SECTIONS OF METAL FLASHING AND SOME
            GUTTER DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS IN THE CITY.

&&

MJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
519 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N PINCKNEYVILLE       38.11N 89.38W
06/18/2004  60 MPH           PERRY              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
540 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PINCKNEYVILLE           38.08N 89.38W
06/18/2004                   PERRY              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE WATER RUNNING OVER THEM.

0537 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PINCKNEYVILLE           38.08N 89.38W
06/18/2004                   PERRY              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN ACROSS THE CITY RANGING IN SIZE
            FROM 1/2 INCH TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

&&

MJN