Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
240 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH MONDAY IS PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE 500 MB PATTERN...BUT THATS WHERE
THE AGREEMENT ENDS. ETA/GFS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERNS SHOW MAJOR
DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. GIVEN THE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION...EVEN SUBTLE 500 MB
FEATURES WILL BE IMPORTANT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE MODELS CANNOT HANDLE
THESE FINE SCALE DETAILS MUCH BEYOND 12 HOURS...WILL FOCUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE CHANGES.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MODELS INDICATE ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
SHIFT OF THE 500 MB WESTERLIES AS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE FLATTENS
OUT. THIS SHIFT WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME WEAK IMPULSES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SINCE ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN FORMING THE PAST FEW DAYS ALMOST UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE AXIS...THESE WEAK IMPULSES SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING. AIR MASS WILL BE PRIMED FOR
CONVECTION...WITH K INDICES HOVERING THE MID 30S AND PRECIP WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD BE OVERCOME
WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TODAY AS SKIES START OUT CLEAR. HIGHS
WILL BE BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO AVN MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH
IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN ETA AND NGM MOS.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE THE
HIGHEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ETA/GFS BOTH SHOW 500 MB TROUGHING
INCREASING OVER WESTERN MO/EASTERN KS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. LARGE
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY /GFS SURFACE BASED CAPES NEAR 4000/...PULSE TYPE WIND
AND HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE FORECAST WIND PROFILES /0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND
20 KNOTS/.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
BIGGEST MODEL DIFFERENCE IS IN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB FEATURES
MONDAY AND BEYOND. THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE ETA SHOWS NEITHER THE FRONT NOR THE BUBBLE HIGH
BEHIND IT. THE GFS HAS SHOWN VERY LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES DAY 3 AND BEYOND. BASED ON VERY MARGINAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...AS WELL AS THE CLIMATOLOGY OF OUR REGION IN
JUNE...WILL FOLLOW THE ETA SOLUTION. WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GFS
MOS...EVEN THOUGH IT BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. NO PRECIP
WILL BE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS EAST/WEST 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
BECOMES LOCATED FROM OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE BEYOND WEDNESDAY. GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP A 500
MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW POPS LATE IN THE WEEK AS 500 MB HEIGHTS FALL. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN
THE GRADUAL COOLING TREND.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
424 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-131000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIKESTON...POPLAR BLUFF...PERRYVILLE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PADUCAH...OWENSBORO...MURRAY...MAYFIELD...
MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...EVANSVILLE...HERRIN...
HARRISBURG...CARMI...CARBONDALE AND CAIRO
424 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY REACH SEVERE
LEVELS...PRODUCING A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI TO EVANSVILLE INDIANA. SOUTH OF THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA...ANY SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRENCES WILL BE ISOLATED AT MOST.

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE OHIO RIVER. CHECK THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SOME STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI TO
HOPKINSVILLE KENTUCKY. AGAIN...THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY IN THE STORMS.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
STORMS INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK MAY
BE STRONG.

ALL POINTS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER ARE FORECAST TO BE UNDER FLOOD STAGE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUESTED ANY TIME THROUGH MONDAY.
SPOTTERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ARE ASKED TO BE READY TO ACTIVATE.

YORK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1139 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

ILZ088>094-KYZ001>013-015>017-021-022-MOZ087-110>112-114-121800-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-CALDWELL KY-CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-
CARLISLE KY-CHRISTIAN KY-CRITTENDEN KY-FULTON KY-GRAVES KY-HARDIN IL-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JOHNSON IL-LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-
MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-
POPE IL-PULASKI IL-SCOTT MO-STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION IL-
WEBSTER KY-
1139 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...

AT 1135 AM...PADUCAH DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO DETECT NUMEROUS
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SHAWNEETOWN ILLINOIS TO POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI.
THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AROUND 30 MPH.

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH. THESE
WINDS MAY EVEN OCCUR A FEW MILES AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. GUSTY WINDS OF THIS NATURE CAN BLOW AROUND LOSE OBJECTS
SUCH AS YARD ITEMS...AND CAN EVEN BRING A TREE OR TWO DOWN.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED...FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1150 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1121 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N MOUNDS              37.17N 89.20W
06/12/2004                   PULASKI            IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VILLA
            RIDGE COMMUNITY.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1234 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PRINCETON               37.11N 87.88W
06/12/2004                   CALDWELL           KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE FELL ON VEHICLE, LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ALSO.

&&

SMITTY