Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
245 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE EXHIBITED IN LATEST MODEL RUNS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME MINOR DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON OUR NEXT PCPN CHANCE.
THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING IT IN AS EARLY AS LATE TUE PM
WITH A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE EJECTION. ETA/NGM ARE MUCH
CLOSER/SIMILAR AND AS SUCH SEEM TO HAVE THE BETTER GRASP ON THE
SCENARIO. ANY WAY YOU CUT IT WE ARE TALKING A SMALL CHC PCPN TUE
NIGHT-WED...AS THE MID-UPPER TROP CURVE COOLS A LTL AND THE LOWER
TROP CURVE WARMS A LTL...SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH FOR INCOMING
FRONT/BOUNDARY TO POSSIBLY TAP A TSM OR TWO.

AFTER THAT ITS DRY WX INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DAYS 6-7. WE STAYED IN THE
BALLPARK OF MOS TEMPS AND GENERALLY ITS POPS THROUGHOUT THE
PACKAGE...WITH SUBTLE LEANS IN THE NEAR TERM BASED ON PREFERRED
MODEL CHOICES OF ETA/NGM.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE
MO...NONE
IL...NONE
IN...NONE

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
232 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-021000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIKESTON...POPLAR BLUFF...PERRYVILLE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PADUCAH...OWENSBORO...MURRAY...MAYFIELD...
MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...EVANSVILLE...HERRIN...
HARRISBURG...CARMI...CARBONDALE AND CAIRO
232 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH
10 PM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...OHIO...GREEN...AND BIG MUDDY RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH NO
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

FLOODING OF SOME RIVERS WILL CONTINUE. THE FLOOD CREST ON THE OHIO
RIVER WILL REACH SOUTHWEST INDIANA THIS WEEKEND...FINALLY REACHING
CAIRO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOODING MAY REACH MODERATE LEVELS UPRIVER
FROM THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE TENNESSEE RIVER. FLOODING ON THE
MISSISSIPPI...GREEN...AND BIG MUDDY RIVERS IS MINOR AND WILL BEGIN TO
RECEDE BY THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

YORK