Flash Flood Warning 71, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 PM CDT WED AUG 25 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

WILL BE BRIEF DUE TO CURRENT WEATHER SITUATION. MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT VARY ON SHORT WAVE TIMING WITHIN H50 WEST/SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND ACTUAL TIMING/AMOUNTS OF PRECIP. FAIRLY POTENT MID LVL
SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...COMBINING WITH SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS NEAR THE SFC (SEE ONGOING
CONVECTION IN MISSOURI) TO BRING SCT TO LIKELY CHCS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST
OF THE SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND THEN EXPECT THE STORMS TO
BEHAVE A LITTLE BETTER FROM 10 PM OR SO ON...AS SFC INSTABILITY
WANES. STILL COULD BE SHOWERS/STORMS WELL INTO THE NIGHT...AS UPPER
SUPPORT WILL BE QUITE STRONG.

WILL LIKELY SEE A BIT OF A LULL THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING IS LIKELY
BEHIND THIS INITIAL SHORT WAVE. REALLY CANNOT SEE ANY GOOD REASON TO
TIME PRECIP AGAIN UNTIL FRI AFTERNOON...WHEN STORM CHANCES MAY BE A
BIT HIGHER OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS COLD FRONT INCHES SOUTH
TOWARD THAT AREA. MODELS HINTING AT H50 SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE
ACTUALLY BULGING BACK OVER THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS SAT...SO WILL NOT
BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY...WHEN NEXT DECENT H50
TROF APPROACHES AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL OFF. SO...WILL TIME THE
HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND (SUN/SUN
NIGHT) WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

WILL HANG ON TO DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AS MED
RANGE MODELS STILL FORECAST SURFACE HIGH TO TAKE RESIDENCE EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
436 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2004

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-271000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIKESTON...POPLAR BLUFF...PERRYVILLE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PADUCAH...OWENSBORO...MURRAY...MAYFIELD...
MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...EVANSVILLE...HERRIN...
HARRISBURG...CARMI...CARBONDALE AND CAIRO
436 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 FROM MOUNT
VERNON ILLINOIS TO STENDAL INDIANA. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
57...COVERING SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS....WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...BUT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL...AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE WITH
EACH ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FLOODING PROBLEMS
MAY EVENTUALLY ARISE DUE TO THE REPEATED HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY...BUT ANY REPORTS OF
FLOODING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA WOULD BE APPRECIATED.