Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT FRI APR  9 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS ONGOING THIS AFTN WILL LIKLEY CONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WARM FRONT WHICH MADE GOOD PROGRESS NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HAS STALLED FROM NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND MOST OF THE SEVERE WX SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. BY LATER THIS EVENING THE BOUNDARY
WILL AGAIN MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. POST FRONTAL RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT AND ENERGY WILL CONT TO DROP
SOUTH THROUGH PLAINS. SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH LATE SAT INTO
SUN... WHICH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH IN TX.

COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO WARMER TEMPS AS HIGHS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. LIGHT FREEZE STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NW THIRD TO HALF OF OKLAHOMA BY MONDAY MORNING.

WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST BY TUE WITH 60S MOST LOCALES
TURNING INTO 70S AND 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FRI ALSO APPEARS TO
BE NEXT POSSIBLE TIME FOR SHWRS/TSTMS... BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCTION OF POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  53  37  55 /  70  50  20  10
HOBART OK         44  51  35  53 /  40  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  55  39  56 /  40  40  20  10
GAGE OK           39  47  31  52 /  70  40  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     42  51  33  54 /  70  60  10  10
DURANT OK         54  58  43  57 /  70  50  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT FRI APR 9 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101300-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... AND THAT
PART OF OKLAHOMA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ARNETT TO GUTHRIE TO CHANDLER.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.  IN THE MEANTIME...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.  BY MID AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS THE MAIN RISK.  THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
AND DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.  THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY WILL
LIKELY DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE INSTABILITY DECREASES
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY APR 10.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THOUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING. FROST IS
LIKELY ACROSS AREAS FARTHER SOUTH IN OKLAHOMA.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT
7 AM CDT SATURDAY APRIL 10TH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
428 PM CDT FRI APR 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             3 S CRESCENT            35.91N 97.60W
04/09/2004  0.75 INCH        LOGAN              OK   PUBLIC

&&

KT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
548 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2004

OKZ047-048-051-052-092315-
ATOKA OK-BRYAN OK-JOHNSTON OK-MARSHALL OK-
548 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ATOKA...BRYAN...JOHNSTON AND
MARSHALL COUNTIES.

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MARSHALL COUNTY...
IN THE VICINITY OF MADILL AT 548 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP IN THE
NEXT 30 MINUTES.

PEOPLE IN ATOKA...BRYAN...JOHNSTON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF DURANT...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

 MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
551 PM CDT FRI APR 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HAIL             KENDRICK                35.79N 96.77W
04/09/2004  0.88 INCH        LINCOLN            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
553 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2004

OKZ026-092310-
LINCOLN OK-
553 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF KENDRICK AT
553 PM CDT...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
603 PM CDT FRI APR 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     HAIL             STROUD                  35.75N 96.66W
04/09/2004  1.00 INCH        LINCOLN            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KT