Severe Thunderstorm Warning 683, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
152 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP CONVECTION BLOSSOMING ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE OUN CWA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER LOW
ADVANCING RAPIDLY EWD FROM NEW MEXICO.  WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE
SETTING UP JUST NORTH OF OKC..WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS NOW UNDERWAY IN
OKC/END/SWO TRIANGLE.  NORTHERN PART OF SQUALL LINE HAS WEAKENED
SINCE 1 PM..BUT MARGINAL SVR THREAT WILL EXIST AS FAR NORTH AS SFC
TROF/WARM FRONT AXIS FROM EL RENO TO PERRY.  WIND/HAIL THREAT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS SRN PORTION OF SQUALL LINE NOW APPROACHING
SPS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD INTO BETTER MOISTURE EAST OF SPS..AND
ESP ALONG/EAST OF I35 CORRIDOR ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY REGION. ETA
IS ALSO CONSISTENT ON 12Z RUN IN REDEVELOPING A NARROW AXIS OF 500
J/KG CAPE IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME ALONG LEADING DPVA LOBE OF UPPER
LOW CORE ACROSS CENT/SRN OK.  ALTHOUGH BEST MOISTURE WILL BE EAST BY
THIS TIME..UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS ARE AWFULLY COLD ALOFT..AND WE MAY SEE
ONE MORE AREA OF WEAKER CONVECTION DEVELOP THIS EVENING.  WE HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD QUITE A BIT FOR THE 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT TIME
PERIOD..BUT THEREAFTER SYSTEM WILL BE OPENING UP AND RAPIDLY
SHEARING NEWD..SO PRECIP SHUD SHUT OF RATHER RAPIDLY FROM SW TO NE
BY MIDNIGHT.

THEREAFTER..ALL AVAILABLE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PATTERN
SHIFT WILL OCCUR BY THIS WEEKEND WITH A TRANSITION TO A MEAN RIDGE
POSITION OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION..AND DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE
SCALE ERN CONUS UPPER TROF.  THIS WILL PLACE THE SRN PLAINS IN
MOSTLY DRY WNW/NW FLOW ALOFT..WITH PERIODIC GLANCING BLOWS OF COLD
AIR AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DIVE SEWD AND CARVE OUT THE TROF TO OUR
EAST.  COOL DOWNS ARE LIKELY..ESP N/E..SECTIONS WITH EACH FRONT.  AT
THE MOMENT..WILL RETAIN LOW POPS EAST WED NITE WITH FIRST SUCH
WAVE..WITH TIMING ON ANOTHER COOL SURGE SOMETIME AROUND FRIDAY.  A
THIRD AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SOMETIME
AROUND SAT NITE/SUN. SFC RIDGES BEHIND EACH WAVE WILL STILL BE
MAINLY OF MODIFIED PACIFIC ORIGIN RATHER THAN ARCTIC..BUT EVEN SO..
GRADUALLY INCREASING SNOW PACK TO OUR NORTH AND TIME OF YEAR STILL
INDICATE THAT THIS AIR MAY BE RATHER CHILLY..ESP MON/TUE OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER..EXPECT COLDEST AIR OF MORE TRUE ARCTIC ORIGIN TO STAY
LOCKED UP IN THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
 MILLER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  56  34  63 /  50   0   0  10
HOBART OK         38  57  36  64 /  20   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  59  36  65 /  30   0   0  10
GAGE OK           29  54  32  59 /  40   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  54  32  59 /  70   0   0  10
DURANT OK         47  61  33  62 / 100   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST MON DEC 6 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-071300-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK COVERS MUCH OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
CHANDLER... TO OKLAHOMA CITY... TO HOLLIS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AT MIDDAY
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS THE STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES... THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS... WHICH WERE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM NORTHERN TEXAS
THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY COOL AIR WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER... EVEN THROUGH THE INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED... STRONG
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL... THE COOL... STABLE AIR AT LOW LEVELS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAY BECOME SHALLOW ENOUGH
TO ALLOW SOME STRONG WINDS TO ALSO REACH GROUND LEVEL IN THOSE AREAS.

THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL SUBSIDE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
MID TO LATE EVENING AS THE UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS THE
AREA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY DEC 7.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY MORNING.

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
133 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

OKZ037-044-TXZ086-089-062000-

ARCHER TX-COTTON OK-TILLMAN OK-WICHITA TX-
133 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ARCHER...COTTON...TILLMAN
AND WICHITA COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES WEST OF
GRANDFIELD TO 27 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DUNDEE AT 133 PM CST...MOVING
EAST AT 55 MPH.  WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE
OF STORMS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WICHITA AND
ARCHER COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

SIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
141 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SEYMOUR                 33.60N 99.26W
12/06/2004                   BAYLOR             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY SHERIFF ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS. NO DAMAGE WAS
            REPORTED.

&&

TY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
153 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

TXZ090-062015-

CLAY TX-
153 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLAY COUNTY.

AT 155 PM...RADAR SHOWED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
ARCHER AND WICHITA COUNTIES...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CLAY COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF HENRIETTA...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN
ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JAMES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
154 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DUNDEE                  33.73N 98.90W
12/06/2004                   ARCHER             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            NO WIND DAMAGE. ESTIMATED THUNDERSTORM GUST OF 66 MPH.

&&

TY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
201 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

OKZ027-039-045-062030-

GRADY OK-JEFFERSON OK-STEPHENS OK-
201 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GRADY...JEFFERSON AND
STEPHENS COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 13 MILES WEST OF RUSH
SPRINGS TO 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAURIKA LAKE AT 201 PM CST...MOVING
EAST AT 55 MPH.  WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE
OF STORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS RUSH SPRINGS...MARLOW...DUNCAN...COMMANCHE
AND WAURIKA.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

SIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
216 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WICHITA FALLS           33.91N 98.50W
12/06/2004                   WICHITA            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED POWER POLES DOWNED. REPORTED AT
            SOUTHWEST PARKWAY AND KEMP BLVD.

&&

TY