Severe Thunderstorm Warning 665, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
310 PM CST MON NOV  1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.  18Z SOUNDING
INDICATED SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL COOLING...SO IF STORM CAN DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH ELEVATED POSITIVE AREA FOR LARGE HAIL.

18Z ETA RUN SHOWS BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE LOCATED WITH ELEVATED
FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST PARTS OF FA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  WITH ECHOS
INCREASING TO THE SOUTHWEST APPEARS THIS AREA MAY HAVE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN.  WILL ALSO KEEP LIKELY POPS IN AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  ALSO EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH EARLIER FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES BECAUSE OF RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING THAT WAS ONGOING.

EXPECT AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS
UPGLIDE INCREASES.  BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF AREA INDICATE SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE EXCEPT FOR THE LAST 1-2K FEET...SO WET SNOW/RAIN MIX WILL
BE POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...AIR AND SOIL TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO ALLOW ANY
ACCUMULATION.

AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MISSOURI WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL COME
TO AND END WITH HEIGHT RISES GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY WILL
HELP PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.  PACIFIC AIRMASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN COOL/MILD DAYS AND COOL/COLD NIGHTS.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  47  50  39  53 /  60  60  80  20
HOBART OK         41  47  36  58 /  60  60  80  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  50  38  59 /  60  80  60  10
GAGE OK           38  44  32  57 /  60  60  80  10
PONCA CITY OK     44  48  40  51 /  50  40  80  50
DURANT OK         55  54  43  55 /  60  60  80  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ATOKA...BRYAN...HUGHES AND COAL COUNTIES OKZ032-043-048-052.
TX...NONE.

&&

6

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
355 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-021300-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CHANDLER...TO OKLAHOMA CITY...TO ALTUS...TO SEYMOUR
TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEFORE 8 PM.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WEST OF WICHITA FALLS...THEN SOUTHWEST INTO WEST
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED
THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE RISK AREA AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. BECAUSE OF
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS HAIL.

THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THE CHANCES FOR
SEVERE STORMS LATER IN THE EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY NOV 2.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON...WITH GUSTS OVER
40 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR DRIVERS OF
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON EAST WEST ROADS. ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
LEFT THE GROUND SATURATED ACROSS MUCH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER
TODAY...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
443 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

OKZ035-037-038-012300-

COMANCHE OK-KIOWA OK-TILLMAN OK-
446 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR COMANCHE...KIOWA AND TILLMAN
COUNTIES.

SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
INCLUDING ONE NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS
NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE... ANOTHER BETWEEN TIPTON AND MANITOU...
AND A THIRD BETWEEN DAVIDSON AND HOLLISTER.  ALL THE STORMS WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.  SMALL HAIL... SMALLER THAN DIMES... IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS... AND LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IF ANY OF THE
STORMS INTENSIFY.

PEOPLE IN COMANCHE...KIOWA AND TILLMAN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
519 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             8 E DAVIDSON            34.24N 98.94W
11/01/2004  1.00 INCH        TILLMAN            OK   PUBLIC

0511 PM     HAIL             9 E DAVIDSON            34.24N 98.92W
11/01/2004  1.00 INCH        TILLMAN            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

TY/JLP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
557 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

OKZ025-027>029-020015-

CLEVELAND OK-GRADY OK-MCCLAIN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-
557 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLEVELAND...GRADY...MCCLAIN
AND OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WILL ROGERS WORLD AIRPORT IN
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA CITY AT 557 PM CST.

ANOTHER DEVELOPING STORM WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF NEWCASTLE. A
FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED NEAR NEWCSATLE.  BRIEF...WEAK FUNNEL
CLOUDS...INCLUDING A BRIEF TOUCHDOWN...WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

ALL THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A CHANGE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
602 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

TXZ086-020015-

WICHITA TX-
602 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WICHITA COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WICHITA COUNTY... JUST EAST
OF HAYNESVILLE... AT 602 PM CST...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES IS LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. IF THE STORM
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED.

CMS

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