Severe Thunderstorm Warning 640, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
227 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS N TX THIS AFTN. SHWRS WILL
CONT TO AFFECT PARTS OF W N TX AND POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL OK
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NW OK
THIS AFTN WITH GREATEST PUSH ACROSS TX PANHANDLE. FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT/SAT AS UPR TROUGH
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND SAT ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE FRONT
FROM MO/KS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES OF SEVERE WX
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THE FURTHER SOUTH THE STORMS
PROPAGATE. PRECIP EXPECTED TO END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FA
SAT WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO N TX SAT NIGHT. TEMP FORECAST
DIFFICULT FOR TONIGHT/SAT AS RAIN COOLED AIR COULD CAUSE TEMPS TO
COOL QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING COOL SAT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA...DUE TO ONGOING RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER.

FORECAST IS DRY SUN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS IS INDICATING
A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN ROCKIES ABOUT MID WEEK WHICH
COULD AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH AFFECTS OF SFC RIDGE REMAINING
OVR THE AREA...LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED IN THE FA SO HAVE
KEPT FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  80  62  85 /  80  60  10  10
HOBART OK         67  81  61  86 /  60  50  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  82  65  87 /  60  60  20  10
GAGE OK           60  79  54  85 /  50  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  80  60  83 /  80  30  10   0
DURANT OK         75  80  67  86 /  40  70  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-281200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WEST OF A LINE FROM
HOLDENVILLE...TO ARDMORE...TO HENRIETTA.

TIMING...
MOST LIKELY FROM 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WINDS TO 65 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND
EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING NEAR A LINE FROM CHEROKEE TO
ERICK. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT BY 5 PM.

THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT IN KANSAS DURING THIS PERIOD. THEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES GREATER INFLUENCE OVER
THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE FRONT...INFLUENCING NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE
EVENING. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THESE
AREAS...WITH A FEW STORMS LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS
THAT MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...AS STORMS MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY AUG 28.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY... AND SHOULD
DIMINISH OR END SATURDAY EVENING.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SATURDAY.

JAMES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

OKZ016-017-272330-

BLAINE OK-CUSTER OK-
610 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BLAINE AND CUSTER COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTH OF THOMAS AT 610 PM
CDT AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH...CONTINUES OVER EASTERN CUSTER
COUNTY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED WEST OF
WATONGA AND NEAR OKEENE IN BLAINE COUNTY.

PEOPLE IN BLAINE AND CUSTER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

KT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
728 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             ENID                    36.40N 97.88W
08/27/2004  1.00 INCH        GARFIELD           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL REPORTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF TOWN.

&&

KT