Severe Thunderstorm Warning 627, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
341 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP THIS SHORT SINCE WE HAVE ACTIVE WEATHER. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A SMALL SCALE SURFACE
CIRCULATION OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND HELP WITH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA. THE INITIAL STORM IS
NOW MOVING TOWARD THE ADA AREA AND HAS PRODUCED A  HEALTHY OUTFLOW
THAT HAS COOLED TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND AN EAST WIND CREATING DECENT
CONVERGENCE ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS HELPING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE MOVING IN FROM THE HIGH
TERRAIN. WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AGAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT... ESPECIALLY IN THE ETA MODEL. HAVE UPPER POPS A LITTLE BIT
FOR THIS AND MAY NEED TO INCREASE MORE AS THE SCENARIO DEVELOPS.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  83  60  84 /  30  10  10  10
HOBART OK         61  84  61  84 /  30  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  86  63  87 /  30  20  20  20
GAGE OK           55  82  59  80 /  30  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     56  80  58  82 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         61  83  62  85 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THE SLIGHT RISK IS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
MEDFORD TO STILLWATER... TO COALGATE TO MARIETTA. THIS INCLUDES ALL
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK IS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD TO
STILLWATER... TO COALGATE TO MARIETTA. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 3 PM
THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM 3 PM
THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AS A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AFTERNOON HEATING
AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH FORCING FROM THE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE... PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY AUG 13.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...40 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA EACH DAY...BUT THE CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
LOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
528 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

OKZ021-122245-
BECKHAM OK-
528 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BECKHAM COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SAYRE AT 528 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN BECKHAM COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.