Severe Thunderstorm Warning 606, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
258 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN TODAY OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SOME WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE AREA THROUGH MID
EVENING... BUT MAIN SHOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WITH
BETTER SUPPORT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY IN
THE VICINITY... WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SPREADING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE WORDING OF THE
PACKAGE... BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME SINCE
MOST AREAS HAVE NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR A WHILE AND FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO
FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SURFACE FRONT AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED EXCEPT TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY GIVEN THE PROGGED 850 MB
TEMPERATURES THAT DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY CAN SUPPORT THE MEX GUIDANCE
MAX TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  80  60  84 /  80  70  10  10
HOBART OK         66  80  59  85 /  80  70  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  82  61  86 /  50  60  10  10
GAGE OK           61  77  53  84 /  80  40  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     63  79  57  83 /  80  50  10  10
DURANT OK         72  83  63  85 /  40  60  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS WEST OF STATE HIGHWAY 34 AND NORTH OF
STATE HIGHWAY 33. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF I-35 IN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 11 PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
EVENING AND PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIE FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE TO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING. WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
TUESDAY MORNING STORMS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS ANOTHER LARGE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER THE
COLORADO HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD REACH NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1 AM AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

BECAUSE OF EXPECTED MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND LIKELY MAINTAIN SEVERE STORMS
WITHIN THE STORM COMPLEX FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM 60 TO 80 MPH AND VERY LARGE
HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THIS COMPLEX OF
STORMS IS ALSO LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...2 TO 3
INCHES IN MANY PLACES.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY AUG 11.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 700
AM WEDNESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

OKZ035-102045-
KIOWA OK-
329 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR KIOWA COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
COOPERTON AT 329 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
344 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

OKZ035-102100-
KIOWA OK-
344 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR KIOWA COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF GOTEBO AT 344 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

OKZ024-102200-
CANADIAN OK-
445 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CANADIAN COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER NILES AT 445 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

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