Severe Thunderstorm Warning 592, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
241 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON SFC MESOANALYSIS AND KVNX FINE LINE INDICATE COLD
FRONT FROM NCENTRAL INTO WCENTRAL OK. SFC LOW OVER SW OK ASSOCIATED
MORE WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROF ACROSS SW INTO CENTRAL-ECENTRAL OK.
DIURNAL CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MUCH OF AREA LIKELY TO REMAIN
MORE PULSE-TYPE IN NATURE DUE TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT. POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED LANDSPOUTS/
GUSTNADOES. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MESOSCALE WILL EVOLVE THIS
EVENING...BUT QPF FROM CONSENSUS INDICATES HEAVIEST PRECIP MOST
LIKELY TO FALL ACROSS N OK TONIGHT...WITH SECONDARY AXIS OF HIGHER
PRECIP SW-WARD ALONG SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE INTO SW OK AND W TX.
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE SPREAD ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SE ZONES FOR
TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED ONCE WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE MESOSCALE THIS
EVENING. PRECIP AXIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME SAT AND SAT
NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. WITH CLOUDS
LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD...EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA NOT TO GET OUT OF
70S ON SAT. WILL TAIL OFF THE POPS SUN THRU MON NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES
WELL S OF AREA AND SFC RIDGING BRINGS DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO 50S. MAY
WELL SEE SOME RECORD LOWS FALL BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE BY MON.
CURRENT FCST LOW OF 60 AT OKC MON MORNING WOULD BREAK THE CURRENT
RECORD OF 63.

NW FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE MID TO LATE WEEK... THUS LOW POPS
ARE CONTINUED TUE THRU THU. MODELS BRING A MORE ROBUST TROF ACROSS
AREA SOMEWHERE IN THE TUE NIGHT TO WED NIGHT TIME FRAME. EXACT
TIMING DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL ONE BELIEVES. HAVE ELEVATED POPS TO
CHANCE CAT DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS AS LONG AS NW FLOW PERSISTS...THUS WILL KEEP TEMPS WED-FRI
BELOW CURRENT GUIDANCE. FRI WILL BE KEPT FREE OF POPS BASED ON
CONSENSUS FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  79  62  77 /  80  80  20  20
HOBART OK         66  78  61  78 /  90  80  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  85  65  80 /  60  50  40  20
GAGE OK           61  74  56  77 /  80  60  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  73  60  77 /  90  80  10  10
DURANT OK         74  89  66  78 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED... BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
A VERY SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT... THAT EXTENDED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL
INTO WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON... WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.  STORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT... MAINLY NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.  WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOW FOR ANY GIVEN
LOCATION.  HOWEVER... A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE.  THESE
STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AND WILL MOVE
SLOWLY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LATER TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY JUL 24.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... WITH THE BEST CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH AS THE
FRONT MOVES DEEPER INTO TEXAS.  CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RESUME TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SATURDAY.

CMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
423 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW BLACKWELL          36.78N 97.31W
07/23/2004  75 MPH           KAY                OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ESTIMATED

&&

JLP/DEW/FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
426 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW BLACKWELL          36.82N 97.31W
07/23/2004  60 MPH           KAY                OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ESTIMATED

&&

JLP/DEW/FM

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