Severe Thunderstorm Warning 504, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
915 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

.UPDATE...
MODIFIED POPS TO HANDLE DYING ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES...AND
INCOMING STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SUPPORT FOR NORTHWEST ACTIVITY...THEREFORE WILL EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN
TOWARD/BY MIDNIGHT. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT JUST IN CASE INCOMING ACTIVITY HAS DIFFERENT PLANS.

NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

11

&&

340 PM

.DISCUSSION...
AREA IS CURRENTLY RAIN FREE AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN
EASTERN KANSAS IS DRIFTING EAST GIVING WAY TO DEVELOPING RIDGING TO
THE WEST. BELIEVE MAIN CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN TO THE
EAST.. BUT THERE IS THE RESIDUAL SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH DECENT CUMULUS ALONG IT. WILL
STILL HAVE A SHOT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS AREA OR ANY
DEVELOPMENT OVER WEST TEXAS APPROACHING MY TEXAS ZONES THIS
EVENING.. SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE STILL NEEDED. MID LEVEL FLOW OF
35 TO 45 KNOTS AT 500 MB SEEN ON AREA PROFILERS AND MIXED LAYER CAPE
IS AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG SO SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL MONITOR
SATELLITE TRENDS AND MAY INCREASE POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING IF DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED IN OUR ALMOST DAILY RAIN SATURDAY AS UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM TO PRODUCE A CAP
OVER THE AREA.  BUT NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN.
SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA-KANSAS STATE LINE SUNDAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED. KEEP POPS IN THE EXTENDED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY TO MID
WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  94  72  94 /  20   5  10  10
HOBART OK         72  97  72  97 /  20   5  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  99  74  99 /  10   5   5  10
GAGE OK           65  95  68  95 /  60   5   5  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  91  70  93 /  30   5  20  20
DURANT OK         73  93  74  94 /  10   5   5  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
825 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
SEMINOLE...TO PAULS VALLEY...TO MARIETTA.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING.

IMPACTS...
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
HIGH TO EXTREME INSTABILITY AND MODEST WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING VERY LARGE
HAIL.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS MAY SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
BY LATE EVENING...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY JUL 3.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED FLOODING...AS RECENT RAINS HAVE LEFT
THE GROUND SATURATED ACROSS MANY PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN LIKE
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SATURDAY...JULY 3.

11

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1107 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

OKZ004-005-010-030430-
HARPER OK-WOODS OK-WOODWARD OK-
1107 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR HARPER...WOODS AND WOODWARD
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF SELMAN AT 1107 PM
...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN HARPER...WOODS AND WOODWARD COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1134 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

OKZ005-006-010-011-030500-
ALFALFA OK-MAJOR OK-WOODS OK-WOODWARD OK-
1134 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ALFALFA...MAJOR...WOODS AND
WOODWARD COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER FREEDOM AT 1134 PM... MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
WITH THE STORM. THERE IS A GUST FRONT THAT WILL PRECEED THIS STORM
BY ABOUT 15 MINTUES. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS GUST FRONT.

PEOPLE IN ALFALFA...MAJOR...WOODS AND WOODWARD COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF ALVA...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1152 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             3 N STRATFORD           34.84N 96.96W
07/02/2004  1.25 INCH        GARVIN             OK   PUBLIC

&&

CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1157 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

OKZ005>007-011-030530-
ALFALFA OK-GRANT OK-MAJOR OK-WOODS OK-
1157 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ALFALFA...GRANT...MAJOR AND
WOODS COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF DACOMA AT 1157 PM
...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STORM. HOWEVER...A GUST FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING 50 MPH WIND GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CHEROKEE...HELENA...AND FAIRVIEW AREAS BY 1 AM.

PEOPLE IN ALFALFA...GRANT...MAJOR AND WOODS COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITY OF ALVA...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN
FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

11