Severe Thunderstorm Warning 483, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE CUT OFF SOMEWHERE NEAR KDDC
EARLY THIS MORNING..WITH A RATHER LARGE NON-SEVERE MCS CURRENTLY
MOVING SEWD ACROSS OUN CWA ON SOUTH SIDE OF CIRCULATION CENTER.
APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS SW SECTIONS OF THE CWA THRU ABOUT MID MORNING AS 35KT LLJ
EVIDENT ON JAYTON PROFILER CONTINUES TO FEED VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR INTO BUBBLE HIGH BOUNDARY ON SW FLANK OF MCS.  IN
ADDITION..PROFILER PLOTS BETWEEN 500-1000 M/AGL ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES E-W ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE VERY NEAR OR JUST N OF I-40.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING JUST ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY FROM WCENT OK
WWD TO N OF KAMA..AND WE SEE LITTLE REASON WHY THIS CONVECTION WUD
DIMINISH UNTIL CESSATION OF LLJ MID-LATE MORNING WHILE MOVING EWD
INTO WRN OK AND PERHAPS MERGING WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT ON W SIDE OF
BUBBLE HIGH.

LIKELY TO BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY MIDDAY-LATE AFT..BUT MORE STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WRN OK 22-02Z AND DEVELOP INTO ANOTHER MCS TO
AFFECT MOST OF CWA OVERNITE TONITE.  CONFIDENCE IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT EVENT TONITE HAS INCREASED DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS
INCLUDING 1) CAPE IN WARM SECTOR APPROACHING 3000 2) DEEP FEED OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES 3) DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS BY 06Z AND 4) A 40 KT SRLY LLJ IN
THE 950-900 MB LAYER.  FIRST GUESS WUD SEEM TO SUGGEST A MUCH
GREATER SVR WIND THREAT WITH A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS.. BUT WITH
SUCH A STRONG LLJ AND HIGH PW VALUES..ANY REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND
MESO-HIGH WUD LIKELY RESULT IN TRAINING OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES.  GIVEN THAT 2-4 INCHES MORE OF RAIN WILL HAVE FALLEN IN THE
PAST 24 HRS FROM WCENT/SW OK INTO SCENT OK BY NOON TODAY..WE WILL BE
HOISTING ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY /MAINLY FOR THIS
MORNING/ THRU TONITE IN THIS AREA..AND MAY INCLUDE SOME NTEX
COUNTIES AS WELL.

SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS FRI..LEAVING A WARMING TREND AND DIMINISHING
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.  SRN EXTENT OF TSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK LIKELY TO BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND INCREASED CAPPING.  HOWEVER..WILL LEAVE SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR NOW.  ALSO CLEANED UP POPS IN DAYS 6-7 TO BRING GRIDS
INTO AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING WFO/S.
 MILLER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  85  67  87  70 /  60  60  30  10
HOBART OK         88  67  90  69 /  50  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  70  90  70 /  60  50  30  10
GAGE OK           86  64  89  66 /  50  60  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     84  67  85  68 /  50  60  30  10
DURANT OK         85  71  86  70 /  60  60  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY THRU TONITE S OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM
     FT SUPPLY/SEILING/HINTON/NORMAN/ADA/COALGATE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY THRU TONITE HARDEMAN/WILBARGER/
     WICHITA/CLAY COUNTIES.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011700-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS ALSO A
RISK OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND ALL OF
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE RISK OF FLOODING WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 3 PM
THROUGH 3 AM. FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN THIS EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO LATE TONIGHT...AND REMAIN
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING OPERATIONS TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER KANSAS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ONLY VERY
SLOWLY EAST TODAY. THIS LOW CONTRIBUTED TO DEVELOPMENT OF CLUSTERS
OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST
TEXAS...AND THESE BREAKS SHOULD SPREAD EAST INTO OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. RESULTANT HEATING WILL CREATE MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAXIMUM CAPE VALUES OF 2 TO 3000
EXPECTED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.

LATER TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER KANSAS. THESE WINDS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LOW LEVELS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE...WILL SET UP A VERTICAL WIND PROFILE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... POSSIBLY INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY ORGANIZING
INTO ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN...WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
HAZARD WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO HEAVY RAIN
OVERNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUL 2.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS LEFT THE GROUND SATURATED ACROSS MANY PARTS OF
THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

24

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
519 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2004

OKZ040-041-045-046-050-TXZ086-089-090-011030-
ARCHER TX-CARTER OK-CLAY TX-GARVIN OK-JEFFERSON OK-LOVE OK-MURRAY
OK-WICHITA TX-
519 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ARCHER...CARTER...CLAY...
GARVIN...JEFFERSON...LOVE...MURRAY AND WICHITA COUNTIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
TURNER FALLS TO SOUTHERN WICHITA FALLS AT 519 AM...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 30 MPH. STRONG WINDS GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THIS LINE...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED
WITH THE STORMS THEMSELVES.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
526 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2004

OKZ009>011-014>016-021>023-033>035-011050-
BECKHAM OK-CADDO OK-CUSTER OK-DEWEY OK-ELLIS OK-GREER OK-HARMON
OK-KIOWA OK-MAJOR OK-ROGER MILLS OK-WASHITA OK-WOODWARD OK-
526 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BECKHAM...CADDO...CUSTER...
DEWEY...ELLIS...GREER...HARMON...KIOWA...MAJOR...ROGER MILLS...
WASHITA AND WOODWARD COUNTIES.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS COVERED MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AT 526 AM
THIS MORNING...MOST WERE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR VINSON...ELK CITY...LEEDEY...
TALOGA...AND JUST SOUTH OF CLINTON. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR FLASH FLOODING.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
534 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2004

OKZ040-041-046-047-050-051-TXZ090-011045-
CARTER OK-CLAY TX-GARVIN OK-JOHNSTON OK-LOVE OK-MARSHALL OK-MURRAY
OK-
534 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CARTER...CLAY...GARVIN...
JOHNSTON...LOVE...MARSHALL AND MURRAY COUNTIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
DAVIS TO 4 MILES NORTH OF LAKE ARROWHEAD AT 534 AM...MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY A WIND
SHIFT JUST AHEAD OF THE STORMS. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH THE STORMS.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
636 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2004

OKZ023-035-038-011200-
CADDO OK-COMANCHE OK-KIOWA OK-
636 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CADDO...COMANCHE AND KIOWA
COUNTIES.

AT 636 AM CDT... A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED OVER
MUCH OF KIOWA... NORTHERN COMANCHE AND SOUTHERN CADDO COUNTIES...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE NEARLY CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING... TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS... AND PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL.  RAINFALL RATES FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LOCAL FLOODING... ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS IN AND NEAR THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS.

 MILLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
728 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2004

OKZ039-044-045-011300-
COTTON OK-JEFFERSON OK-STEPHENS OK-
731 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR COTTON...JEFFERSON AND
STEPHENS COUNTIES.

AT 728 AM CDT...A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED
FROM NEAR DUNCAN.... WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO LAWTON AND HOBART...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ACROSS MUCH OF
COTTON... JEFFERSON AND STEPHENS COUNTIES BETWEEN 730 AND 9 AM...
THAT MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.  IN ADDITION... NEARLY CONTINUOUS
LIGHTNING... SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

PEOPLE IN COTTON...JEFFERSON AND STEPHENS COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITY OF DUNCAN...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN
FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS. DO
NOT DRIVE INTO WATER THAT CROSSES THE ROAD.

 MILLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
906 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2004

OKZ023-011415-
CADDO OK-
906 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CADDO COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ALBERT AT 906 AM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CADDO COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

JAMES