Severe Thunderstorm Warning 434, NWS Norman, OK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
910 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-181200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY...TO LAWTON...TO WICHITA
FALLS.

TIMING...
9 PM THROUGH 4 AM.

IMPACTS...
WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WILL
ENCOUNTER GREATER INSTABILITY AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET...AS
THEY MOVE INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE AREA...THESE STORMS WILL MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS...
WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH A
SECONDARY CONCERN FOR QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUN 18.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
DUE TO A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...AND SLOW STORM MOTION...THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE TO OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY...SOME OF WHICH
COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE SOONER AND LONE STAR STATES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY...JUNE 17.

JAMES

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