Severe Thunderstorm Warning 429, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
855 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...
TEXT PRODUCTS AND GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED AT 645PM TONIGHT. HAVE
REDUCED POPS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INHIBITED
BY LACK OF STRONG CONVERGENCE. WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION AND LACK OF
BOUNDARIES DONT EXPECT ANY NEW CONVECTION NEXT FEW HOURS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS APPEARS TO TRANSITIONING BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL. TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...EXPECT MULTICELL
STORMS TO BE DOMINATE MODE AS INSTABILITY DECREASES TONIGHT. HEAVY
RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS WITH RICH MOISTURE...SLOWER
FORWARD MOVEMENT AND PLENTY OF ANVIL PRECIP TO ENHANCE FEEDER-SEEDER
PROCESS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FF WATCH. SOME
AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SW OKLAHOMA ARE 2X NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE
LAST 30 DAYS.

ON THE FLIP SIDE...OTHER CONCERN IS AN ENCORE HEAT BURST EVENT...
SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LAST NIGHT. IF
ACTIVITY DISSIPATES ACROSS THIS AREA BETWEEN 10PM AND 2 AM THIS
WOULD BE HEAT BURST PRIME TIME.  SEE AREA WEATHER UPDATE PRODUCT
FOR MORE INFORMATION. MAY ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  92  71  93 /  20  20  20  10
HOBART OK         71  96  70  97 /  30  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  96  73  97 /  50  10  10  10
GAGE OK           67  97  68  94 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     73  92  71  92 /  20  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  91  72  92 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

SNELSON

99

EFFECTIVE 11 AM TUESDAY JUNE 15 2004...THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER
FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM AFDOKC TO AFDOUN.  THE WMO HEADER
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.  PLEASE ENSURE THAT ANY NEEDED CHANGES ARE
COMPLETED BY JUNE 15 2004.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALVA...TO ERICK...AND
INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES
AN AREA FROM NEAR HOLDENVILLE AND ATOKA...SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
ARDMORE...MADILL...AND DURANT.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME IS FROM 4 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND WINDS TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION...TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS

DISCUSSION...
BY LATE AFTERNOON A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR PRATT KANSAS
...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR CHEROKEE AND ERICK.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER JET
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A SECONDARY BULGE IN THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...POSSIBLY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO
NEAR SWEETWATER AND MIDLAND. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
JET IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WEAKENING CAP DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE LATE IN THE
DAY. EXTREME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY BECOMING SEVERE...WITH
SUPERCELLS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE
DRYLINE...TWO MAIN AREAS EXIST FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

THE FIRST AREA IS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE UPPER JET APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. THE RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH THE
GREATER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

THE SECOND AREA WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHICH BE
SOUTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS...AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA MAY
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD EARLY EVENING...WHICH WOULD INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS...WITH
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY JUN 13.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SLOWLY AND OR DEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY... WITH A SIMILAR
OVERALL PATTERN AS TODAY.  AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH STRONG
CAPPING... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SUNDAY.

JAMES

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