Severe Thunderstorm Warning 351, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THIS EVENINGS SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE
STATE. ONCE THE DRYLINE MERGES WITH THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT, IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING BEFORE IT CLEARS
SOUTHEAST OK. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL HOLD OVER OK THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH NORTHEAST OF OK TUESDAY
BRINGING A SECOND FRONT AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. UPSLOPE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH
DAILY CHANGES APPEAR SUBTLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  86  56  86 /  50  20  10  10
HOBART OK         63  86  55  88 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  91  59  91 /  40  20  10  10
GAGE OK           55  80  49  86 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     67  83  50  83 /  80  20  10  10
DURANT OK         74  93  62  87 /  80  30  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A MODERATE
RISK EXISTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE HIGH RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS EAST AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ALVA...TO WEATHERFORD...GUTHRIE...AND STILLWATER.

TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM WOODWARD...TO
FREDERICK...TO WICHITA FALLS...TO HENRIETTA TEXAS.

THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA...OVER THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME WILL BE FROM 2 TO 11 PM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES...ROOFS...AND VEGETATION FROM LARGE HAIL.
VIOLENT THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 80 MPH...AND SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

EVERYONE IN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS ENCOURAGED TO REMAIN ALERT
DURING THEIR HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES AND TRAVEL. KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE
CURRENT WEATHER FORECAST...AND PLAN AHEAD ON WHAT YOU WILL DO IF A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO APPROACHES YOUR AREA.

DISCUSSION...
A DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...DURING MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. FIRST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WHERE LIFT
ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE GREATEST.

ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH...AND SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. THE COMBINATION OF AN
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WILL ALLOW
SUPERCELLS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP...WITH EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH RISK AREA...WHERE LIFT
ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE STRONGEST...AND LOWER LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
BE HIGHEST.

FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...WHICH WOULD INCLUDE SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...DUE TO A STRONGER CAP. BUT IF STORMS
CAN DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS...SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO QUICKLY
DEVELOP...WITH EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...AND TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE EVENING...AS THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
ALONG THE DRYLINE...MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CATCH UP WITH THE DRYLINE...AND
MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THESE STORMS
MAY DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH SEVERE WEATHER PRIMARILY BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE RISK OF TORNADOES.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...70 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SUNDAY.

JAMES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
725 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

OKZ025-300100-
OKLAHOMA OK-
725 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR OKLAHOMA COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GEARY AT 725 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH.  IF THIS STORM
CONTINUES ITS PRESENT MOTION IT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
OKLAHOMA CITY BY 830 PM.  ALL RESIDENTS IN AND NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE APPROACH OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LISTEN FOR
WEATHER UPDATES AND WARNINGS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
729 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     TORNADO          6 WNW GEARY             35.66N 98.42W
05/29/2004                   BLAINE             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO WAS WRAPPED IN RAIN.

&&

JLP/KAT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
742 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

OKZ011-012-300145-
GARFIELD OK-MAJOR OK-
742 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GARFIELD AND MAJOR COUNTIES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED BETWEEN OKEENE AND RINGWOOD AT 742
PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THE STORMS WILL APPROACH ENID BY 830
PM.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING...HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS TO 50
MPH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
746 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             8 WNW OKARCHE           35.77N 98.11W
05/29/2004  0.75 INCH        KINGFISHER         OK   PUBLIC

&&

JLP/KAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
802 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             11 WNW CALUMET          35.66N 98.30W
05/29/2004  1.25 INCH        CANADIAN           OK   PUBLIC

0800 PM     HAIL             11 WNW CALUMET          35.66N 98.30W
05/29/2004  1.25 INCH        CANADIAN           OK   PUBLIC

&&

JLP/KAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
808 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TORNADO          4 N CALUMET             35.66N 98.12W
05/29/2004                   CANADIAN           OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ALSO REPORTED BY LOCAL MEDIA AND STORM SPOTTERS.

&&

JLP/KAT