Severe Thunderstorm Warning 344, NWS Norman, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A MODERATE
RISK EXISTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE HIGH RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS EAST AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ALVA...TO WEATHERFORD...GUTHRIE...AND STILLWATER.

TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM WOODWARD...TO
FREDERICK...TO WICHITA FALLS...TO HENRIETTA TEXAS.

THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA...OVER THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME WILL BE FROM 2 TO 11 PM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES...ROOFS...AND VEGETATION FROM LARGE HAIL.
VIOLENT THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 80 MPH...AND SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

EVERYONE IN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS ENCOURAGED TO REMAIN ALERT
DURING THEIR HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES AND TRAVEL. KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE
CURRENT WEATHER FORECAST...AND PLAN AHEAD ON WHAT YOU WILL DO IF A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO APPROACHES YOUR AREA.

DISCUSSION...
A DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...DURING MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. FIRST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WHERE LIFT
ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE GREATEST.

ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH...AND SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. THE COMBINATION OF AN
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WILL ALLOW
SUPERCELLS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP...WITH EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH RISK AREA...WHERE LIFT
ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE STRONGEST...AND LOWER LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
BE HIGHEST.

FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...WHICH WOULD INCLUDE SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...DUE TO A STRONGER CAP. BUT IF STORMS
CAN DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS...SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO QUICKLY
DEVELOP...WITH EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...AND TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE EVENING...AS THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
ALONG THE DRYLINE...MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CATCH UP WITH THE DRYLINE...AND
MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THESE STORMS
MAY DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH SEVERE WEATHER PRIMARILY BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE RISK OF TORNADOES.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...70 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SUNDAY.

JAMES

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
448 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             11 E ROLL               35.78N 99.52W
05/29/2004  1.00 INCH        ROGER MILLS        OK   AMATEUR RADIO

0446 PM     HAIL             FREEDOM                 36.77N 99.11W
05/29/2004  1.75 INCH        WOODS              OK   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JLP/KAT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
502 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             1 E ANGORA              35.83N 99.43W
05/29/2004  1.00 INCH        ROGER MILLS        OK   PUBLIC

&&

JLP/KAT