Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
333 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
COLD FRONT AND BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT.
EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BEFORE DEVELOPING
INTO COMPLEX LATER THIS EVENING AS LLJ INTENSIFIES.
COULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKENDS SYSTEM WHERE
BEST MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND ELEVATED STORMS
WEAKEN ON COLD SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY.  HAVE ISSUED
FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND ONE COUNTY IN TEXAS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST PARTS OF FA
SATURDAY MORNING.  RATHER COOL AIRMASS FOR MAY WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SECONDARY WIND SHIFT COMING LATE SUNDAY.
AFTER A COOL START MONDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
DURING THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  47  61  44  71 /  70  10  10  10
HOBART OK         43  64  42  72 /  50  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  49  61  45  73 /  70  10  10  10
GAGE OK           39  63  39  71 /  30  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     45  62  42  70 /  60  10  10  10
DURANT OK         53  62  46  73 /  90  50  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH OKZ032-041>043-045>048-050>052.
TX...FLOOD WATCH TXZ090.

&&

6

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ARCHER
CITY... TO RYAN... TO SULPHUR... TO CALVIN OKLAHOMA. THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA IS NORTH OF THE MODERATE RISK AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MUNDAY
TEXAS... TO LAWTON... TO YUKON... TO STILLWATER.

TIMING...
SEVERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY NOW THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT... BUT A
FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM STILLWATER... TO THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO
AREA... TO FREDERICK THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT... THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AND ALSO ALONG A DRYLINE THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS... AND A FEW SUPERCELLS.  THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE MOST
UNSTABLE... AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOST PLENTIFUL.  THE TORNADO THREAT
MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...
BUT ANY SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES THIS EVENING... STORMS
SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A COMPLEX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS... WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF HAIL AND HIGH WINDS... ALONG
WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY MAY 1.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SATURDAY... MAY 1.

MAXWELL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
800 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

OKZ050-010115-
LOVE OK-
800 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR LOVE COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF THACKERVILLE AT 800
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
805 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             3 S DURANT              33.95N 96.38W
04/30/2004  1.25 INCH        BRYAN              OK   PUBLIC

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S DURANT              33.95N 96.38W
04/30/2004  60 MPH           BRYAN              OK   PUBLIC

            WIND SPEED WAS ESTIMATED

&&

PIKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
807 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

TXZ090-010115-
CLAY TX-
807 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLAY COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF HENRIETTA AT 807 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

24