Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
125 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004

.NEAR TERM (TODAY)

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BY SPC FOR
ORANGE...ROCKLAND..WESTCHESTER...PUTNAM...AND FAIRFIELD COUNTIES
UNTIL 700 PM. THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS HAS MADE FOR A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CAPES OF 3000-5000 J/KG. THE EXISTENCE OF A SURFACE FRONT OVER
WESTERN NY AND PA MAY ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE
ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WATCH.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

COMING SOON

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

SHORTWAVE PULLS IN TO CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY WITH DRYING
WESTERLY UPPER FLOW AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE
SURFACE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BEAUTIFUL DAY ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST AND A BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT ATMOSPHERE TOO
DRY AND DYNAMICS TOO WEAK FOR ANY PRECIP WITH FRONT.
THEREAFTER...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING THE REGION DRY. 850 TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN
14-16 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME TEMPS IN ATLEAST THE MID
80S...BUT AN E/SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TEMPER
THIS HEAT EXCEPT OVER FAR WESTERN AREAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNINGS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPS MAY HOLD AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF RIDGE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...PROVIDING ENOUGH ENERGY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR ON THURSDAY AND
ENTIRE REGION ON FRIDAY AS IT WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY TO INTRODUCE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS ALONG THE COAST.
&&

.AVIATION...

COMING SOON

&&

.MARINE...

COMING SOON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD COULD PROVIDE FOR
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD PROBLEMS.
&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
         ANZ350-353-355..
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
144 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-210948-
BERGEN NJ-BRONX NY-EASTERN PASSAIC NJ-ESSEX NJ-HUDSON NJ-
KINGS (BROOKLYN) NY-NASSAU NY-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) NY-
NORTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-NORTHERN NEW LONDON CT-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-
NORTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-ORANGE NY-PUTNAM NY-QUEENS NY-
RICHMOND (STATEN IS.) NY-ROCKLAND NY-SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON CT-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-
UNION NJ-WESTERN PASSAIC NJ-
449 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONT WILL TEAM UP WITH A VERY WARM AND MOIST
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS THREAT WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 90S TODAY IN THE CITY...WITH VALUES IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY
POSSIBLY REACHING 100. PROPER PRECAUTIONS WILL HAVE TO BE TAKEN TODAY
TO AVOID HEAT RELATED PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY AS
STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS PRECEDE A COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY...A COUPLE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE ACTIVATED THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
122 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004

CTZ006>008-NJZ002>004-202300-
BERGEN NJ-EASTERN PASSAIC NJ-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-NORTHERN NEW LONDON CT-WESTERN PASSAIC NJ-
122 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...

A VERY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL TEAM UP WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY TO CAUSE THE POSSIBILITY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL START
SAGGING SOUTHWARD. THIS FRONT MAY BEGIN TO ACT AS A TRIGGER TO HELP
FIRE THUNDERSTORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.