Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1145 AM EDT FRI MAY 28 2004

.DISCUSSION...I/LL UPDATE THE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS THAT DEVELOP AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. POPS SHOULD BE LOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS
WE BEGIN TO STABILIZE ALOFT...HOWEVER...I DONT THINK I CAN
COMPLETELY REMOVE A SMALL CHANCE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE...NO SIG CHANGES. ALSO...NO SIG CHANGES TO THE MARINE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 435 AM...SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN LI AND SE CT ZONES WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STABLE MARINE LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK HAS DONE LITTLE TO HINDER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DUE TO AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING WITH ELEVATED CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND WET BULB ZERO VALUES AROUND 10 KFT. THE STABLE MARINE
LAYER IN PLACE WILL IMPEDE STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM MAKING IT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...BUT SMALL HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THIS MORNING PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY BY EVENING. A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW ENSUES WITH STRONG
COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. EXPECT
TEMPS BOTH TODAY AND SAT TO BE COOLER THAN ADVERTISED BY MOS. TODAY
DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER AND SAT FOR THE DEEP COLD POOL THAT MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT SOME CU ON SAT AFT WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
ABATING COLD ADVECTION. SKIES CLEAR FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEEP
LAYERED NW FLOW.

A PROGRESSIVE..BUT AMPLIFIED FLOW LEADS TO AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON MON AND CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...QUIET START CONCERNING WINDS AND SEAS...AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE SLACK. COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...THEN WE GET INTO A DECENT NW FLOW TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON SAT...BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
SLIVER BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER CHALLENGING OVERNIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF
LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONCURRENTLY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. THINK WE
WILL SEE A BIT OF A BREAK CONCERNING PRECIP UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERALLY RUN IFR OR LOWER...WHILE VSBYS
FEATURE A WIDE RANGE. HOWEVER...NOW THAT TEH PRECIP HAS ENDED FOR A
FEW HOURS...DO EXPECT THESE TO SLIDE DOWNWARD. THOSE TERMINALS WITH
LIFR VSBY SHOULD REMAIN THERE FOR NOW...WHILE THE MVFR OR VFR
LOCALES SHOULD DETERIATE TO IFR OR WORSE. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
ANYTIME FROM EARLY TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT ABOUT A 50 TO 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION OUT JUST AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE THIS MORNING...THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...QPF EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER AND ONE-HALF
INCH BASIN AVERAGE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT MAY
RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
520 AM EDT FRI MAY 28 2004

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-291001-
BERGEN NJ-BRONX NY-EASTERN PASSAIC NJ-ESSEX NJ-HUDSON NJ-
KINGS (BROOKLYN) NY-NASSAU NY-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) NY-
NORTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-NORTHERN NEW LONDON CT-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-
NORTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-ORANGE NY-PUTNAM NY-QUEENS NY-
RICHMOND (STATEN IS.) NY-ROCKLAND NY-SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON CT-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-
UNION NJ-WESTERN PASSAIC NJ-
520 AM EDT FRI MAY 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME SMALL
HAIL IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.