Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1115 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

.UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 20Z FOR
NYC...NORTHEAST NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST CT. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH MARINE LAYER BURNING OFF OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS AND TEMPS STARTING TO RECOVER INTO THE 70S. OKX 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALL THE WAY UP TO 650 MB...AND
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND A FEW LOWER 90S IN NORTHEAST NJ
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD CAPE
BETWEEN 2500-3000 J/KG. ALL THIS PLUS ABOUT 35-40 KT 0-3KM SHEAR AND
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WIND DAMAGE. COULD ALSO
BE SOME LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE LARGE VALUES OF CAPE...ALSO POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED TOR WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE BACK DOOR
FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT WE ONCE AGAIN BRING IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND
EASTERLY FLOW PER ETA.

MODELS ARE MUCH MORE STABLE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (WED - SUN)...FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LATE MAY FRONT COMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THURSDAY. GFS SUGGEST SHORTWAVE FOR FRIDAY...BUT QUICK LOOK AT 12Z
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THIS AND REST OF THE EXTENDED FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND HAS LOW CONFIDENCE...BASICALLY CLIMO FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.
&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS MOVING INTO ALL THE TERMINALS 05Z TO 07Z WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO BELOW IFR AND AT SOME LOCATIONS LIFR.
VISIBILITY ALSO LOWERING TO MAINLY MVFR WITH SOME IFR. VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS REMAIN BELOW THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...LONGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN LONG ISLAND TERMINALS AND SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. CEILINGS
SLOWLY LIFT AND BECOME VFR 15Z TO 17Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE BURN OFF. WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEXT TROUGH COMING THROUGH. BEST CHANCE
WILL BE AFTER 18Z...MAINLY AFFECTING THE NYC TERMINALS AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. SCATTERED ACTIVITY THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.
&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR EAST OF
MORICHES ZONE. SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO BELOW AT THIS TIME BUT WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AGAIN INCREASE...BY THIS AFTERNOON TO
3 TO 5 FEET. SOME FOG ON THE WATERS WITH VISIBILITY AT TIMES BELOW 3
NM AND MAY LOCALLY BE BELOW 1 NM BEFORE IMPROVING DURING THE
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
WITH CHANCES CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...NEAR 1.5
INCHES...ANY TSTM CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL EASILY PRODUCE RATES
OF 2+ INCHES PER HOUR...BUT THE RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTION OF WNW
AT 25 KTS SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOVING ALONG. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
TRAINING ON THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CTZ005-006-009-010.
NJ...SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 4 PM NJZ002>006-011.
NY...SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 4 PM NYZ067>076.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ANZ355
         SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 4 PM ANZ338-335.
&&

GOODMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
521 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-251030-
BERGEN NJ-BRONX NY-EASTERN PASSAIC NJ-ESSEX NJ-HUDSON NJ-
KINGS (BROOKLYN) NY-NASSAU NY-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) NY-
NORTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-NORTHERN NEW LONDON CT-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-
NORTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-ORANGE NY-PUTNAM NY-QUEENS NY-
RICHMOND (STATEN IS.) NY-ROCKLAND NY-SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON CT-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-
UNION NJ-WESTERN PASSAIC NJ-
521 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK CITY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL MOVE
FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AT AROUND 25 MPH. SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN SOUTH OF
MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK POINT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
554 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

CTZ005-006-NYZ070-241100-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NEW HAVEN-
554 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

AT 554 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN UPTON NY
HAS DETECTED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL FAIRFIELD COUNTY
IN CONNECTICUT WEST SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN NEW
YORK STATE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE
STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH IN LESS
THAN 15 MINUTES.

STAY INDOORS UNTIL THESE STORMS PASS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
628 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

CTZ005-006-009-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>076-242000-
BERGEN NJ-BRONX NY-EASTERN PASSAIC NJ-ESSEX NJ-HUDSON NJ-
KINGS (BROOKLYN) NY-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) NY-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-ORANGE NY-PUTNAM NY-
QUEENS NY-RICHMOND (STATEN IS.) NY-ROCKLAND NY-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-UNION NJ-WESTERN PASSAIC NJ-
628 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED OUR
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING TO
IGNITE POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PRIMARY HAZARDOUS THREAT FROM TODAYS STORMS IS DAMAGING
WINDS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 25 TO 30
MPH. AS THE STORMS MOVE OUT OVER LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN
CONNECTICUT...THEY WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV

JST