Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS New York, NY

000 
WGUS71 KOKX 231710
FFSOKX
NJC003-013-017-231730-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
105 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2004


...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR 100 PM EDT HAS 
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER THE FLASH 
FLOODING THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. SOME ROADWAYS...LOW LYING AND POOR 
DRAINAGE AREAS STILL MAY BE COVERED WITH WATER...THEREFORE MOTORISTS 
ARE ADVISED TO AVOID DRIVING THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
230 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS WHERE/WHEN IT RAINS
AND HOW MUCH. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER INTO OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS BY EVENING. THERES NOT GOING TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
UPPER SUPPORT TO FUEL ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STRONG TSTMS ALONG AND
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST (TDS
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 70S IN THE NYC METRO). PWS WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 2.00 TODAY AS A DIRECT RESULT OF THIS MOISTURE. THIS
COMBINED WITH LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME INSTAB WILL CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT FOR BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE RAIN TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FRONT OR JUST
AHEAD OF IT. THIS MEANS LIKELY POPS WELL INLAND...CHANCE IN THE
CITY...AND SLT CHANCE ERN ZONES. ERN LI MAY NOT SEE ANY RAIN UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS CREEP EWD TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
ADVANCES TO THE COAST. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS
TONIGHT...EXCEPT EXTREME SERN CT AS WELL AS THE ERN END OF LI. SOME
SEMBLANCE OF A LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING THIS EVENING...SO PRECIP
SHOULD BLOSSOM DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH SOME OF IT HEAVY.

THE SHOWERS BECOME LIGHTER ON SATURDAY AS MORE OF A WINTERTIME
OVERRUNNING SITUATION DEVELOPS AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG AND COOL HIGH
MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING OUR FRONT OFFSHORE.
UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN IF WE DONT HAVE HEAVY RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY...IT WILL STILL BE RATHER NASTY...WITH LIGHT RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS. NELY WINDS OFF OF THE COOL SRN NEW ENGLAND WATERS WILL ADD
TO THE UNPLEASANT WEATHER.

WAS TEMPTED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT AFTER
LOOKING AT FFG VALUES...I WONT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A 1-2 BASIN AVERAGE IS LIKELY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND PARTS OF NRN NJ. IN THAT AREA...3 TO 6
HOUR FFG VALUES ARE 3.5 TO 5 WITH 24H VALUES >5. NYC/LI EXTREME
NERN NJ FFG VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER...BUT OVERALL QPF FORECAST IS
LOWER THERE...AND WILL TAKE QUITE AWHILE TO ACCUMULATE. HOWEVER...IT
IS VERY MUCH WORTH THE MENTION THAT ANY SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...WHICH WILL CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. SITUATION
WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY...BUT NO FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF RATHER NASTY. COOL HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH...BUT MODELS AGREE THAT WARM MOIST AIR IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN IT. THIS MEANS A NASTY AND COOL
SUNDAY MONDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN TUE. LOW CLOUDS/NORTHEAST FLOW/LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES WILL MAKE FOR UNPLEASANT JULY WEATHER.
TEMPS COULD REMAIN IN THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THIS TYPE OF
SETUP...WITH DRY AIR RESERVOIR IN NRN NEW ENGLAND FEEDING US DRIER
DEWPOINTS THAT WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVELS WET-BULB DOWN. MAY SEE
WARMUP LATER TUE AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW MOVES TO OUR
WEST.
&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR VSBY AND LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR WITH IFR/MVFR VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK
ACROSS MOST AREAS AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND MOISTURE POOLS
BENEATH. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS BY
16Z...EXCEPT KGON...WITH DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. KGON WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCES OF MARINE LAYER WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBY. VSBY WILL REMAIN LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR ACROSS MOST REGIONS IN
HAZE. SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER KSWF...AND THEN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD
KEWR AND KTEB BY 18Z...AND OVER KHPN...KLGA...KJFK AFTER 20Z. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS/OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ACTIVITY. SHRA
ACTIVITY MOVES TO EASTERN AIRPORTS IN THE LATE EVENING. MOST AREAS
SHOULD FALL BACK TO LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY OVERNIGHT WITH SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...
WILL PUT UP HEADLINE FOR POSSIBLE SCA FOR ROUGH OCEAN WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT. GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS TODAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE OCEAN.
COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES OVER THE WATERS ON SATURDAY AND THEN
BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...WITH FLOW BECOMING NE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS NE FROM MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WELL SE OF THE WATERS...BUT WITH A TIGHT NE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING....WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY. THE PROLONGED NE FETCH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO SCA ON THE
OCEAN SATURDAY NIGHT...REMAINING THROUGH MONDAY. CONDITIONS SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS AND THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...PLEASE SEE ABOVE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN SLOW-MOVING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
509 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2004

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-240907-
BERGEN NJ-BRONX NY-EASTERN PASSAIC NJ-ESSEX NJ-HUDSON NJ-
KINGS (BROOKLYN) NY-NASSAU NY-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) NY-
NORTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-NORTHERN NEW LONDON CT-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-
NORTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-ORANGE NY-PUTNAM NY-QUEENS NY-
RICHMOND (STATEN IS.) NY-ROCKLAND NY-SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON CT-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-
UNION NJ-WESTERN PASSAIC NJ-
509 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY. THESE DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND RISES ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ONE OR TWO THUDNERSTORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TRI STATE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND RISES ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.