Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
245 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE REGION...FROM
NORTH GA...ACROSS SOUTH MID TN...AND INTO NORTHWEST TN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN A NOSE ALONG THE FRONT OVER
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WAS OVER WEST TN WITH
70+ DEW POINT AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT MORE STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THIS AREA THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. SEVERE WEATHER NOT A MAJOR THREAT...MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL DIE DOWN WITH
SUNSET. MORE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE ENHANCES LIFT ALONG THE SFC-H8 BOUNDARY. THESE LATE NIGHT
SHOWERS/STORMS MOST LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS A
CONCERN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY...BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE MOVING NORTH WITH FOCUS
FOR STORMS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FORM THE WEST
TROUGHING HANGING OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER...INCLUDING A GOOD DEAL OF MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION. HARD TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC AREAS OR TIMING...SO WILL GO
WITH 40-50 POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALL ZONES. GFS SUGGESTS SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE AREA IN A
WARMER AND HUMID PATTERN. ALONG WITH DIURNAL/MESOSCALE
CONVECTION...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MEANS A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST EVERY DAY.

&&

.BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-301030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
215 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

TNZ005>007-022>026-292015-
BENTON-CHEATHAM-DICKSON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-
STEWART-
215 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN SOUTHERN CHEATAM COUNTY AND IN
SOUTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 15 MPH. THESE STORMS
HAVE VERY FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY
GUSTY WINDS. THESE STORMS MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT POWER OUTAGES...
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VEHICLES MAY TEND TO
HYDROPLANE WITH  VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO IN THE VICINITY
OF THESE STORMS.

JLM