Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
250 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
MIDDLE TN. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
TSTMS IS OCCURRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN
AR. BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST TN
WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN AR. THIS IS FURTHER EXHIBITED BY THE TRACK OF
THE VORT MAXIMAS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE PATTERN.

TODAY...UL DYNAMICS WILL BE DECREASING ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND WE
WILL ACTUALLY EXPERIENCE A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH HELPS TO DRIVE THE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD. WILL GO AHEAD AND REISSUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE AS THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE. A FEW STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH BEING POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL ZONES.

FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE WEAK WITH
SOME RIDGE AMPLIFICATION EVIDENT. ALSO...THE EXISTENCE OF ANY 850
JET LOOKS UNLIKELY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR THE NOCTURNAL
PERIODS. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...SURFACE BOUNDARIES STILL LOOM
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST THROUGH
MIDDLE TN. INSTABILITIES ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT IF LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD RAIN PRODUCER. CURRENT AND PREVIOUS AVN RUNS ARE PEGGING
IT FOR THE 18Z MID POINT PERIOD. THEREFORE...WILL UP POPS TO THE 60%
LIKELY CAT FOR SUNDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WONT STRAY MUCH. MAYBE A SLIGHT UNDERCUT ON THE MAV
HIGHS IS ALL.

&&

.BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR NW -NCENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA THROUGH 6 PM TODAY.

&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT THU APR 22 2004

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-231030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CDT THU APR 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION REMAINS POSSIBLE TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
304 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CAMDEN                  36.06N 88.10W
04/23/2004                   BENTON             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE CLOSING BETHEL CHURCH ROAD DUE TO
            FLOODING.

&&

31