Tornado Warning 70, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
359 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...
TSTMS CHANCES/STRENGTH INTO TUE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOLLOWED BY
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK AS POSSIBLE SIGFNT COOL DOWN COULD
DVLP.

SHORT TERM...WEAK MID LVL WARM ADVCTN COUPLED WITH THERMAL TROF AT
500 MB MOVG ACRS SD/FAR NRN NEBR WAS HELPING TO GENERATE AN
INCREASING AREA OF TSTMS.  BUMPED UP POPS ACRS THE N THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. QUIETER AFTN PROBABLY IN STORE FOR CWA AS MODELS
DECREASE FCST INSTABILITY WITH EITHER DOWNSLOPE SFC-850 MB WINDS PER
ETA OR VERY WEAK WITH LTL/NO CONVERGENCE PER GFS.  ALSO MODESTLY
WARMING MID LVL TEMPS.  NONETHELESS...KEPT POPS IN FCST FOR THIS
AFTN AS PSBL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP NR SRN ZONES AND LFQ OF UPR JET
COULD AFFECT NRN ZONES. GFS AND ETA BOTH GENERATE A LTL QPF FAR NERN
AND SERN NEBR.  LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACRS THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR
VERY WET GROUND AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EARLIER FCST START.  PCPN
APPEARS TO ONLY REMAIN IN THE SLGT CHC CATEGORY MOST AREAS TNGT AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPR SUPPORT WK. PSBL EXCEPTION COULD BE
SERN ZONES CLOSER TO EITHER A SFC OR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FRONT.

BOOSTED POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NGT PDS...SPCLY SRN
ZONES...AS IT APPEARS WARM FRONT WL DVLP OR MOVE INTO SERN NEBR WITH
INCREASING 850 MB THETA E ADVCTN SPREADING N ACRS CWA.  POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO SETTING UP SOME WHERE NEAR SERN NEBRASKA MON
AFTN/EVENING AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES RAPIDLY WITH MOISTURE/HEAT
RETURN.  DIDNT CHANGE TEMPS TOO MUCH MON.  HOWEVER...RAISED TEMPS A
LTL ON TUE...ESPECIALLY SRN ZONES AS WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT N OF
THERE AND CDFNT PROBABLY WONT ARRIVE S UNTIL TUE NGT.  CNTRL/NRN
ZONES A LTL MORE TRICKY AS WARM ADVCTN CLOUDS AND/OR PCPN COULD
LIMIT HEATING.  STRONG/SVR STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE BOTH WITH WARM
FRONT AND THEN AS CDFNT PUNCHES SE. WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
FROPA...EITHER ARRIVING LATE TUE OR EARLY WED...LINGERED PCPN INTO
WED AM. IF LATEST ETA UPR JET FCST VERIFIES PCPN WOULD EVEN HAVE TO
BE EXTENDED INTO WED AFTN AS ERN NEBR IS PLACED IN RRQ OF A STRONG
UPR JET N OF THE STATE.  WITH MORNING CLOUDS/PCPN AND AFTN COOL
ADVCTN LOWERED HIGHS A LTL.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COOLER LATE WEEK
PD AS A MODERATELY STRONG UPR TROF ROTATES TOWARD NRN PLAINS.  HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A LTL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT NOT AS COOL AS
OPERATIONAL MEX NUMBERS YET. TIMING OF ANY UPR SHRTWV TROFS IN UPR
FLOW TOO HARD TO TIME SO DID NOT CHANGE POPS LATE NEXT WEEK IN THIS
FCST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

CHERMOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1108 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-132300-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
1108 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LESS THAN IT WILL BE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...LATER HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION REGARDING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

DEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
1111 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             1 N VILLISCA            40.95N 94.98W
06/12/2004  0.88 INCH        MONTGOMERY         IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

0810 PM     HAIL             4 NW VILLISCA           40.97N 95.03W
06/12/2004  0.75 INCH        MONTGOMERY         IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JEK