Severe Thunderstorm Warning 338, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
200 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...
TSTM CHCS/COVERAGE THIS EVENING...PCPN CHCS TUE AND TEMPERATURES
WITH MIDWEEK COOL DOWN FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS FCST PERIOD.

SHORT TERM...ATMOSPHERE RECOVERING AFTER DEPARTURE OF MORNING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH INSTABILITY AXIS AND 2000-3000 J/KG CAPE
EXTENDING SW TO NE ACROSS CWA AHEAD OF CDFNT ESTIMATED AT 19Z FROM
NEAR A YKN-ONL-BUB LINE.  SOME CU REMAINED ALONG/JUST AHD OF FNT SO
WL KEEP SMALL POPS MUCH OF NWRN ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MOST
OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED SRN/SWRN ZONES IN BETTER INSTABILITY AND
LOW LVL CONVERGENT AREA NR AND S OF LNK.  WL WAIT MORE TOWARD LAST
MINUTE FOR GRID CONFIGURATION/ZONE WORDING.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FAR NRN ZONES LATER MON AFTN...COOLING IS GRADUAL AND MOSTLY MINIMAL
THRU MONDAY AFTN AND A BLEND OF GUIDANCE VALUES/PREV FCST LOOKS GOOD
FOR TEMPERATURES. APPEARS IF CONVECTION DVLPS MON AFTN WITH
REINFORCING PUSH OF COOL AIR IT WL BE S OF CWA AND WL LEAVE MONDAYS
FCST DRY SERN NEBR.

PRETTY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES TUESDAY WITH GFS DROPPING A DEEPER AND
MORE CLOSED UPR LOW INTO MN...COMPARED TO THE ETA...WITH STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SIGNIFICANT QPF BULLSEYE ACROSS ERN NEBR.
MEANWHILE ETA FOCUSES MORE OF THE LIFT AND QPF SW OF CWA WITH
MINIMAL POPS. DECIDED TO GENERALLY LEAVE FCST ALONE TUE GOING MORE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH SMALL POPS AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE
MORE SO THAN AN OVERCAST DAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN WOULD BRING.

AS TROF SHIFTS TWD ERN GREAT LAKES WED/THU UPR FLOW BECOMES MORE
MERIDIONAL OVER CNTRL U.S. WITH FALL LIKE 850 MB TEMPS IN
LOW/MID SINGLE DIGITS DROPPING INTO PLAINS.  TRIMMED TEMPS BACK A
DEG OR TWO BUT PREV FCSTS HAD TAKEN MUCH OF THE COOL DOWN INTO
ACCOUNT.  WK TROF/VORT MAX FCST BY OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF BY 12Z
THU CLOSE TO ERN NEBR COULD GENERATE A FEW MORE CLOUDS POSSIBLY
KEEPING TEMPS UP A DEG OR TWO INTO THU MORNING. IF THEY LINGER THEY
COULD HOLD TEMPS IN 60S ON THU BUT DIDNT GO THAT COOL ATTM. NOR WAS
ANY PCPN INCLUDED WITH THIS APPARENT WK SYSTEM.

TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE AFT LAST SHORTWV TROF ROTATES ARND ERN U.S.
LONGER WAVE TROF IN SAT/SUN PD.  DIDNT WARM TEMPS UP QUITE AS
QUICKLY AS MEX GUIDANCE. ALSO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN WHICH MAY
NEED TO BE IN LATER FCSTS AS WARM ADVCTN COULD COMBINE WITH WK TROFS
THAT WILL LIKELY MOV ACRS PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT NO CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING EXISTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

CHERMOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1125 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-082300-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
1125 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT IT APPEARS THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
424 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     HAIL             3 E PLYMOUTH            40.30N 96.93W
08/08/2004  0.75 INCH        JEFFERSON          NE   PUBLIC

&&

DEWALD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
442 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             4 S COOK                40.45N 96.16W
08/08/2004  1.00 INCH        JOHNSON            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DEWALD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
449 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             FAIRBURY                40.14N 97.18W
08/08/2004  1.00 INCH        JEFFERSON          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LEAVES ON TREES ARE BEING SHREDDED.

&&

DEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
451 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     HAIL             4 S COOK                40.45N 96.16W
08/08/2004  1.75 INCH        JOHNSON            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DEWALD