Severe Thunderstorm Warning 329, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH
TIMING OF FRONTS AND POPS.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER FOG SHOULD BE MENTIONED
IN FCST TONIGHT.  MODELS INSIST ON LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION...BUT DEW
POINTS HAVE REMAINED STUBBORNLY HIGH ALL DAY...AND IT WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH RADIATION TO DROP BELOW CURRENT DEW POINTS.  DECIDED TO MENTION
PATCHY FOG TOWARD MORNING FOR ALL BUT DRIER AREA IN NORTHEAST NEB.

THU WILL BE COOL AND DRY.  FIRST CHC OF PRECIP COMES WITH RETURN
FLOW IN NORTHEAST NEB LATE THU NIGHT.  MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED
TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY...AND DID NOT MUCH CHANGE LOW POPS ALREADY IN
THE FORECAST.

A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE WEEKEND...AS RETURN
FLOW MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  MODELS HAVE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES...SO EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.  POPS WILL DEPEND
ON HOW WELL FRONT CORRESPONDS WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS LIKELY
WARMEST IN PREFRONTAL REGIME FRI NIGHT AND SAT...THEN BEGIN DROPPING
LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES THOUGH.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING OR INTENSITY OF THE WAVE DROPPING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ACCEPT HPC IDEA THAT THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PUSH OF UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE UP FOR
GRABS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

POLLACK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
516 PM CDT TUE AUG 3 2004

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ015-031>034-042>045-050>053-
065>068-041100-
BURT-BUTLER-CASS-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-FREMONT IA-HARRISON IA-
LANCASTER-MADISON-MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-OTOE-PAGE IA-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-SHELBY IA-STANTON-
THURSTON-WASHINGTON-
516 PM CDT TUE AUG 3 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

TORNADO WATCH...# 700...IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10PM CDT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE WITH TORNADOES...
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...
AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING THE MAIN HAZARDS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES FOR THU8NDERSTORMS CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

NEZ011-012-016>018-030-078-088>093-041100-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-CEDAR-GAGE-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-
PIERCE-RICHARDSON-SALINE-WAYNE-
516 PM CDT TUE AUG 3 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

DEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
729 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     DOWNBURST        OMAHA                   41.26N 96.01W
08/03/2004                   DOUGLAS            NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES...AND SEVERAL MAPLE TREES DOWN IN
            CENTRAL OMAHA. WIND SPEEDS ESTIMATED AROUND 70 MPH.

&&

BG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
750 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             BELLEVUE                41.16N 95.92W
08/03/2004  1.25 INCH        SARPY              NE   PUBLIC

&&

BG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
752 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OMAHA                   41.26N 96.01W
08/03/2004                   DOUGLAS            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE BLOCKING ROAD ON 180TH ST BETWEEN MAPLE AND
            BLONDO.

&&

BG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
806 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     HAIL             5 NW SILVER CITY        41.16N 95.71W
08/03/2004  1.00 INCH        MILLS              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OCCURRED IN MINEOLA

&&

MEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
809 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GLENWOOD                41.05N 95.74W
08/03/2004                   MILLS              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WINDOWS BROKEN AT GLENWOOD POLICE DEPT. POWER LINES DOWN.
            APPROXIMATELY 200 RESIDENTS WITHOUT POWER ACROSS MILLS
            COUNTY.

&&

MEB