Severe Thunderstorm Warning 306, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGE SURROUNDS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT FEW DAYS.

CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE 850-300 MB
THICKNESS. THE ETA DIMINISHES THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL FOLLOW
THAT GENERAL IDEA.  THIS AFTERNOON THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CURRENT SMALL CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA CLOSEST TO
THE INSTABILITY AXIS.  850 MB THEATA/E ADVECTION THEN SPREADS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS
ALSO MOISTURE CONVERNGECE FORECAST AT 850 MB INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY.  DECIDED TO ADD A CHANCE OF STORMS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FEATURES.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE 00Z GFS BRINGS ONE ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS GOT THAT SCENARIO COVERED.   RAIN CHANCES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALSO STILL LOOK GOOD AS THE GFS BRINGS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

CK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
447 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-141100-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
447 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THESE
STORMS ARE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE STORMS SHOULD END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS
WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED CLOSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT IS SITUATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING SHOULD SPREAD EAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

GRIFFIS