Severe Thunderstorm Warning 303, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE
WEEKEND.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
IOWA ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND ON WESTWARD TO NERN CO.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF SRN
SD AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NEB. CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING IN QUITE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH HIGH CAPE VALUES AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. STORMS TAKING ON A EAST TO WEST LINEAR
APPEARANCE...MAINLY ALONG A DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY LINE WITH LOWER
60S TO THE NORTH AND LOWER 70S TO THE SOUTH. STRONG WINDS LOOK QUITE
POSSIBLE OUT OF THESE STORMS WITH DRY LAYER NOTED ON THE 12Z OAX
SOUNDING IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE EAST
SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY CLOSER TO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TOP THE RIDGE TOMORROW AND PROVIDE A
SIMILAR SITUATION WITH INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THRU REMAINDER OF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH TIMING OF WEAK WAVES KEY TO MENTION OF TSTMS. RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY DAY 7...GIVING
BETTER CHANCE FOR LONGER DURATION PCPN EVENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

GRIFFIS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
458 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEEPING WATER           40.87N 96.14W
07/13/2004                   CASS               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            6 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

TFL